SatEvo decay list #81

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Fri, 23 Jul 1999 22:43:50 +0100

SatEvo decay list #81  (issued 1999 July 23)

This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses 
is posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L,
and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
Information about SeeSat-L is available at
   http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html

The "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published
orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects
are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by
1999 August 31, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers 
are included beyond that date.

This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via 
my SatEvo page at
               http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all
the Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus
elsets for other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle, 
and all newly launched and/or catalogued objects.


   #    Designation    Name              ----- Decay (1999) -----
                                            Predicted   Actual?

 24096   94- 29 ET  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                 July  6
 25703   89-100 AY  C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb               July  7  Note 2
 23540   83- 75 BD  Cosmos 1484 deb                    July  9
 24003   94- 29 AY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                 July 10
 20227   87- 20 DM  Cosmos 1823 deb                    July 11
 23997   94- 29 AS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                 July 11
 25686   86- 17 MZ  Mir deb                            July 11
 25198   87- 68 Z   Meteor 2-16 deb                    July 12  Note 2
 25779   99- 32 C   Iridium 14A CSL02 r                July 13.09
 24215   94- 29 KN  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                 July 14
 19173   64-  6 S   Elektron 1 deb                     July 15  Note 2
 17323   86- 19 DF  Spot 1 Ariane 1 deb                July 16
 14168   83- 65 C   Galaxy 1 PAM D r                   July 17.13
 25856   97-  5 C   Muses B M-5 deb                    July 17
 19454   77- 65 FZ  Himawari 1 Delta deb               July 18 Notes 1,2
 24488   94- 29 UM  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                 July 18
 25859   99- 38 B   Progress M-42 Soyuz-U r            July 19.04
 25849   99- 36 C   Molniya 3-50 platform              July 21.11
 17041   86- 79 D   Molniya 3-30 r2                    July 22.75
 24001   94- 29 AW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                 July 22  Note 2
 25848   99- 36 B   Molniya 3-50 Molniya r1            July 23.80
 14448   71- 15 CS  Cosmos 397 deb            July 24
 25780   99- 32 D   Iridium 14A CSL02 S/D     July 25.1
 25820   98- 42 F   Tubsat N SSN-23 deb       July 25
 20354   89- 96 C   Granat Proton r           July 25.67
 25202   87- 68 AD  Meteor 2-16 deb           July 27
 25685   99- 15 C   Sputnik 99                July 29
 24374   94- 29 QB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        July 30
 25216   87- 68 AT  Meteor 2-16 deb           July 30
 24582   94- 29 YJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        July 31
 23311   85-118 W   C 1710 Proton deb       August  3
 24145   94- 29 GU  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      August  4
 25792   99- 35 B   FUSE Delta 2 r          August  6
 22935   83- 75 Y   Cosmos 1484 deb         August  7
 25714   89-100 AY  C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb    August 10
 18547   70- 25 PP  Nimbus 4 Agena deb      August 11
 24440   94- 29 SW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      August 11
 24118   94- 29 FR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      August 12
 25702   89-100 AX  C 2053 Tsyklon deb      August 12
 24495   94- 29 UU  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      August 15
 24414   94- 29 RT  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      August 17
 25453   87- 68 CA  Meteor 2-16 deb         August 17
 25846   99- 67 D   ISS deb                 August 21
 25099   90-103 D   Navstar 22 deb          August 25
 25625   99-  4 E   Glblstar 36 Soyuz r1    August 25
 25447   94- 29 AEC STEP-2 Pegasus deb      August 27
 25712   89-100 BH  C 2053 Tsyklon deb      August 27
 25653   99- 12 E   Glblstar 22 Soyuz r1 September  4
 25819   94- 27 C   SROSS ASLV-D4 deb    September 13
 25518   98- 63 D   Afristar mini-spelda September 17
 22878   93- 68 B   GPS 2-23 Delta r1    September 26
 15076   84- 63 E   Raduga 15 aux motor    October
 25680   99- 19 E   Glblstar 19 Soyuz r1   October
  4222   69- 97 B   AZUR Scout r          November
 24744   97- 10 A   Zeya                  November
 24832   97- 28 E   C 2344 SOZ ullage r   November
 25550   98- 69 B   SAC-A                 November
 22016   92- 39 C   GPS 2-14 Delta r2     December
 24972   97- 57 B   IRS-1D r              December
 25500   98- 25 F   C 2350 aux motor      December
 25551   98- 69 C   MightySat             December
  1844   65-106 B   Cosmos 100 r          2000 Jan - Feb
 22702   93- 42 C   GPS 2-21 Delta r2     2000 Jan - Feb
 24291   96- 50 A   Microsat              2000 Jan - Feb
 25014   97- 63 B   STEP M4 Pegasus r     2000 Jan - Feb
 25790   99- 34 B   QuikScat Titan 2 r    2000 Jan - Feb
 22564   93- 15 B   UFO 1 r1              2000 Jan - Feb
  7969   75- 56 B   Cosmos 744 r          2000 Mar - Apr
 25176   98- 11 B   COMETS H2 r           2000 Mar - Apr
 16609   86- 17 A   Mir                   2000 Jun - Sep


Notes

1. No recent elsets.

2. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.


Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/