Decay Forecast Granat RB and Sl-6 RB

Harro.Zimmer (
Fri, 23 Jul 1999 12:40:16 +0200

Report time 09:20 UTC

In addition to Alans and Robs calculations I have also looked for the possible
reentry of 1989-096C (#20354) Granat R/B with an updated version of SpaceComs 
MSGP 4 program: Here the relevant figures:
              July 25      Time(UTC)  Altitude(km) Latitude  Longitude
                           16:08      278.1        15.46S    88.94E
                           16:09       76.5        11.19S    92.13E
                           16:10     - 98.2        06.61S    95.43E
The sun is well below under the horizon. The decay area is over the Indian
Ocean SW of Sumatra.

1999-036B (#25848) SL-6 R/B 1:
The last update from SpaceCom - prepared July 23, 06:43 UTC - forecasted the
decay at             July 23, 18:55 UTC +/- 09 hours (62.0N, 187.4E)

MPM shows with the ELSETs 99203.793...and 99204.160... a decay at
                     July 23, 19:05 UTC  +/- 90 minutes (36.7N, 236.8E)      
This last descending pass shows with SpaceCom a decay area around the Bering
Street. My MPM prediction shows a possibility that the R/B crossed California
around San Francisco during decay.

An update will follows with the next released ELSETs.

Berlin, Germany