Granat R/B reentry

Matson, Robert (
Thu, 22 Jul 1999 13:25:29 -0700

Hi All,

I've taken a very preliminary look at the probable reentry
of Granat Proton R/B for July 25th, and it looks like it
will reenter just off the coast of Vietnam in the South
China Sea (using HANDE) on a northeast trajectory sometime
between 16:20 and 16:25 UTC.  The reentry prediction moves
around quite a bit depending on whether you use SGP, SGP4
or HANDE.  In fact, with HANDE the minimum altitude is
67.0 km using the following TLE:

Granat Proton r                                  200591 x 67 km
1 20354U 89096C   99202.66875000  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0  8056
2 20354  51.2418 285.3049 9395959  20.7652   0.0733  0.24909598  7768

However, with SGP4 the minimum altitude is -156.8 km, and
reentry is further to the southwest in Sumatra.  The sun
will be well below the horizon, so while Granat R/B won't
be sunlit, at least it's a nighttime reentry.  Perhaps
in a couple days a more up-to-date TLE will appear, allowing
a more precise reentry prediction.  --Rob