Decay watch: July 19
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 19 Jul 1999 21:32:36 +0100
A problem at OIG means that I have been unable to download elsets for
the past two hours. Also, the latest SpaceCom decay warnings I have
are those current some 14 hours ago.
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Object: #25859 = 99- 38 B = Progress M-42 Soyuz-U r
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jul 17 05:13 Jul 19 03:58 +-1d 2.5 S 6.4 E
SpaceCom Jul 18 00:35 Jul 19 00:54 +-15h 25.8 N 30.1 E
SpaceCom Jul 18 12:52 Jul 19 01:00 +-9h 4.9 N 45.9 E
SpaceCom Jul 18 19:03 Jul 19 01:00 +-9h 4.9 N 45.9 E
SpaceCom Jul 18 22:26 Jul 19 00:40 +-2h 51.7 N 35.7 W
SpaceCom Jul 19 01:08 Jul 19 00:55 +-55m 47.7 N 6.4 W
SatEvo Jul 17 19:00 Jul 19 04:37 +-12h
SatEvo Jul 18 20:00 Jul 19 02:25 +-5h 0.0 27.2 E
SatEvo Jul 19 19:50 Jul 19 00:57 +-40m 0.0 49.5 E
Final elset, 18 sec early against yesterday's prediction:
ProgM42 Soyuz r 6.0 3.0 0.0 5.0 d 15 137 x 136 km
1 25859U 99038B 99199.94950760 .24694627 12702-4 24255-3 0 140
2 25859 51.6307 180.7960 0000697 138.7453 221.3620 16.51048334 378
Note: My SatEvo-predicted elset for the final orbit is:
ProgM42 Soyuz r 6.0 3.0 0.0 5.0 d 15 116 x 115 km
1 25859U 99038B 99200.00989388 1.42745958 50000+2 42532-3 0 90140
2 25859 51.6286 180.4476 0000350 139.0053 220.9973 16.59108166 384
SpaceCom places decay while SE-bound over the Bay of Biscay; I place
it further along the orbit near the following equator crossing over the
Indian Ocean off the coast of Somalia.
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Object: #25849 = 99- 36 C = Molniya 3-50 platform
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jul 17 02:50 Jul 21 02:51 +-3d 62.3 S 125.4 E
SpaceCom Jul 17 23:47 Jul 20 23:17 +-2d 54.0 N 166.2 E
SpaceCom Jul 19 01:31 Jul 21 01:59 +-1d 48.1 N 24.7 E
SatEvo Jul 14 18:40 Jul 20 08:08 +-1.5d
SatEvo Jul 15 20:00 Jul 20 17:19 +-1.3d
SatEvo Jul 16 19:00 Jul 20 11:24 +-20h
SatEvo Jul 17 18:55 Jul 21 03:41 +-20h
SatEvo Jul 18 20:30 Jul 21 00:44 +-15h
SatEvo Jul 19 20:15 Jul 21 02:12 +-9h
Latest elset, 5 sec late against yesterday's prediction:
Moln 3-50 plat 3.0 2.0 0.0 6.0 d 6 256 x 164 km
1 25849U 99036C 99200.47937642 .03652215 84439-5 76210-3 0 422
2 25849 62.7970 323.6524 0070109 121.6286 239.2473 16.23488555 1782
SatEvo prediction:
Moln 3-50 plat 3.0 2.0 0.0 6.0 d 6 236 x 156 km
1 25849U 99036C 99201.03280792 .05398673 12016-1 72269-3 0 90426
2 25849 62.7953 321.3942 0060264 121.7397 238.8490 16.28702019 1870
Moln 3-50 plat 3.0 2.0 0.0 6.0 d 6 211 x 147 km
1 25849U 99036C 99201.52305237 .08432467 35594-1 43611-3 0 90420
2 25849 62.7932 319.3773 0048842 121.8391 238.6373 16.35217609 1950
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Object: #17041 = 86- 79 D = Molniya 3-30 r2
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jul 18 21:48 Jul 22 13:03 +-2d 62.2 S 160.2 E
SatEvo Jul 19 20:25 Jul 22 14:51 +-1d
Latest elset:
Molniya 3-30 r2 6.87 1630 x 91 km
1 17041U 86079D 99200.55828083 .15928672 21746-4 23683-3 0 5144
2 17041 62.1749 35.9966 1063165 268.7854 169.9467 14.09694019100707
SatEvo prediction:
Molniya 3-30 r2 6.87 1507 x 89 km
1 17041U 86079D 99201.03386189 .19615742 15125-1 24988-3 0 95148
2 17041 62.1669 34.5232 0988199 268.9270 79.7539 14.28185576100774
Molniya 3-30 r2 6.87 1373 x 89 km
1 17041U 86079D 99201.52076648 .22213781 21060-1 26815-3 0 95145
2 17041 62.1583 32.9717 0903015 269.0770 80.5792 14.48483374100848
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Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/