Decay watch: July 19

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 19 Jul 1999 21:32:36 +0100

A problem at OIG means that I have been unable to download elsets for 
the past two hours. Also, the latest SpaceCom decay warnings I have 
are those current some 14 hours ago.
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Object: #25859 = 99- 38 B = Progress M-42 Soyuz-U r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jul 17 05:13     Jul 19 03:58 +-1d         2.5 S     6.4 E
SpaceCom   Jul 18 00:35     Jul 19 00:54 +-15h       25.8 N    30.1 E
SpaceCom   Jul 18 12:52     Jul 19 01:00 +-9h         4.9 N    45.9 E
SpaceCom   Jul 18 19:03     Jul 19 01:00 +-9h         4.9 N    45.9 E
SpaceCom   Jul 18 22:26     Jul 19 00:40 +-2h        51.7 N    35.7 W
SpaceCom   Jul 19 01:08     Jul 19 00:55 +-55m       47.7 N     6.4 W

SatEvo     Jul 17 19:00     Jul 19 04:37 +-12h
SatEvo     Jul 18 20:00     Jul 19 02:25 +-5h         0.0      27.2 E
SatEvo     Jul 19 19:50     Jul 19 00:57 +-40m        0.0      49.5 E

Final elset, 18 sec early against yesterday's prediction:
ProgM42 Soyuz r  6.0  3.0  0.0  5.0 d   15       137 x 136 km
1 25859U 99038B   99199.94950760  .24694627  12702-4  24255-3 0   140
2 25859  51.6307 180.7960 0000697 138.7453 221.3620 16.51048334   378

Note: My SatEvo-predicted elset for the final orbit is:
ProgM42 Soyuz r  6.0  3.0  0.0  5.0 d   15       116 x 115 km
1 25859U 99038B   99200.00989388 1.42745958  50000+2  42532-3 0 90140
2 25859  51.6286 180.4476 0000350 139.0053 220.9973 16.59108166   384
SpaceCom places decay while SE-bound over the Bay of Biscay; I place
it further along the orbit near the following equator crossing over the
Indian Ocean off the coast of Somalia. 
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Object: #25849 = 99- 36 C = Molniya 3-50 platform

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jul 17 02:50     Jul 21 02:51 +-3d        62.3 S   125.4 E
SpaceCom   Jul 17 23:47     Jul 20 23:17 +-2d        54.0 N   166.2 E
SpaceCom   Jul 19 01:31     Jul 21 01:59 +-1d        48.1 N    24.7 E

SatEvo     Jul 14 18:40     Jul 20 08:08 +-1.5d
SatEvo     Jul 15 20:00     Jul 20 17:19 +-1.3d
SatEvo     Jul 16 19:00     Jul 20 11:24 +-20h
SatEvo     Jul 17 18:55     Jul 21 03:41 +-20h
SatEvo     Jul 18 20:30     Jul 21 00:44 +-15h
SatEvo     Jul 19 20:15     Jul 21 02:12 +-9h

Latest elset, 5 sec late against yesterday's prediction:
Moln 3-50 plat   3.0  2.0  0.0  6.0 d    6       256 x 164 km
1 25849U 99036C   99200.47937642  .03652215  84439-5  76210-3 0   422
2 25849  62.7970 323.6524 0070109 121.6286 239.2473 16.23488555  1782

SatEvo prediction:
Moln 3-50 plat   3.0  2.0  0.0  6.0 d    6       236 x 156 km
1 25849U 99036C   99201.03280792  .05398673  12016-1  72269-3 0 90426
2 25849  62.7953 321.3942 0060264 121.7397 238.8490 16.28702019  1870
Moln 3-50 plat   3.0  2.0  0.0  6.0 d    6       211 x 147 km
1 25849U 99036C   99201.52305237  .08432467  35594-1  43611-3 0 90420
2 25849  62.7932 319.3773 0048842 121.8391 238.6373 16.35217609  1950
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Object: #17041 = 86- 79 D = Molniya 3-30 r2

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jul 18 21:48     Jul 22 13:03 +-2d        62.2 S   160.2 E

SatEvo     Jul 19 20:25     Jul 22 14:51 +-1d

Latest elset:
Molniya 3-30 r2                       6.87       1630 x 91 km
1 17041U 86079D   99200.55828083  .15928672  21746-4  23683-3 0  5144
2 17041  62.1749  35.9966 1063165 268.7854 169.9467 14.09694019100707

SatEvo prediction:
Molniya 3-30 r2                       6.87       1507 x 89 km
1 17041U 86079D   99201.03386189  .19615742  15125-1  24988-3 0 95148
2 17041  62.1669  34.5232 0988199 268.9270  79.7539 14.28185576100774
Molniya 3-30 r2                       6.87       1373 x 89 km
1 17041U 86079D   99201.52076648  .22213781  21060-1  26815-3 0 95145
2 17041  62.1583  32.9717 0903015 269.0770  80.5792 14.48483374100848
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/