Decay watch: July 18
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 18 Jul 1999 21:37:54 +0100
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Object: #25849 = 99- 36 C = Molniya 3-50 platform
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jul 17 02:50 Jul 21 02:51 +-3d 62.3 S 125.4 E
SpaceCom Jul 17 23:47 Jul 20 23:17 +-2d 54.0 N 166.2 E
SatEvo Jul 14 18:40 Jul 20 08:08 +-1.5d
SatEvo Jul 15 20:00 Jul 20 17:19 +-1.3d
SatEvo Jul 16 19:00 Jul 20 11:24 +-20h
SatEvo Jul 17 18:55 Jul 21 03:41 +-20h
SatEvo Jul 18 20:30 Jul 21 00:44 +-15h
Latest elset, 7 sec early against yesterday's prediction:
Moln 3-50 plat 3.0 2.0 0.0 6.0 d 6 286 x 170 km
1 25849U 99036C 99199.49182903 .02802259 83355-5 84139-3 0 376
2 25849 62.8001 327.6484 0087471 122.3418 238.6243 16.16957157 1624
SatEvo prediction:
Moln 3-50 plat 3.0 2.0 0.0 6.0 d 6 271 x 166 km
1 25849U 99036C 99200.04777745 .03474903 42731-2 83153-3 0 90370
2 25849 62.7990 325.4038 0079704 122.4516 238.3215 16.20518015 1718
Moln 3-50 plat 3.0 2.0 0.0 6.0 d 6 255 x 161 km
1 25849U 99036C 99200.54086006 .04262180 67491-2 78765-3 0 90374
2 25849 62.7977 323.4025 0071703 122.5497 238.1449 16.24303545 1796
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Object: #25859 = 99- 38 B = Progress M-42 Soyuz-U r
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jul 17 05:13 Jul 19 03:58 +-1d 2.5 S 6.4 E
SpaceCom Jul 18 00:35 Jul 19 00:54 +-15h 25.8 N 30.1 E
SpaceCom Jul 18 12:52 Jul 19 01:00 +-9h 4.9 N 45.9 E
SpaceCom Jul 18 19:03 Jul 19 01:00 +-9h 4.9 N 45.9 E
SatEvo Jul 17 19:00 Jul 19 04:37 +-12h
SatEvo Jul 18 20:00 Jul 19 02:25 +-5h 0.0 27.2 E
Latest elset, 9 sec early against yesterday's prediction:
ProgM42 Soyuz r 6.0 3.0 0.0 5.0 d 15 181 x 167 km
1 25859U 99038B 99199.40194881 .05590801 12312-4 57503-3 0 108
2 25859 51.6389 183.8986 0010725 91.0189 269.5589 16.36821634 283
SatEvo prediction ofr final orbits:
ProgM42 Soyuz r 6.0 3.0 0.0 5.0 d 15 154 x 145 km
1 25859U 99038B 99199.88904870 .16457993 21331+0 35011-3 0 90108
2 25859 51.6363 181.1417 0006946 93.0754 267.0041 16.46349426 365
ProgM42 Soyuz r 6.0 3.0 0.0 5.0 d 15 147 x 139 km
1 25859U 99038B 99199.94970372 .21953379 40544+0 30665-3 0 90107
2 25859 51.6357 180.7952 0006124 93.3339 266.7362 16.48642702 375
ProgM42 Soyuz r 6.0 3.0 0.0 5.0 d 15 137 x 131 km
1 25859U 99038B 99200.01025765 .35397754 11909+1 28578-3 0 90103
2 25859 51.6349 180.4480 0004996 93.5930 266.4641 16.51966399 386
ProgM42 Soyuz r 6.0 3.0 0.0 5.0 d 15 117 x 114 km
1 25859U 99038B 99200.07063736 1.12627662 10754+2 33423-3 0 90102
2 25859 51.6335 180.0994 0002874 93.8531 266.1797 16.59156703 398
Note: I am predicting re-entry near the southbound equator crossing
(over Zaire) on the last of these orbits. That rev takes it S of
San Diego at 01:51, over Denver at 01:55, Minneapolis at 01:57 an
onwards over SE Canada. SpaceCom has re-entry one orbit earlier.
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Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/