Decay watch: July 18

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 18 Jul 1999 21:37:54 +0100

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Object: #25849 = 99- 36 C = Molniya 3-50 platform

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jul 17 02:50     Jul 21 02:51 +-3d        62.3 S   125.4 E
SpaceCom   Jul 17 23:47     Jul 20 23:17 +-2d        54.0 N   166.2 E

SatEvo     Jul 14 18:40     Jul 20 08:08 +-1.5d
SatEvo     Jul 15 20:00     Jul 20 17:19 +-1.3d
SatEvo     Jul 16 19:00     Jul 20 11:24 +-20h
SatEvo     Jul 17 18:55     Jul 21 03:41 +-20h
SatEvo     Jul 18 20:30     Jul 21 00:44 +-15h

Latest elset, 7 sec early against yesterday's prediction:
Moln 3-50 plat   3.0  2.0  0.0  6.0 d    6       286 x 170 km
1 25849U 99036C   99199.49182903  .02802259  83355-5  84139-3 0   376
2 25849  62.8001 327.6484 0087471 122.3418 238.6243 16.16957157  1624

SatEvo prediction:
Moln 3-50 plat   3.0  2.0  0.0  6.0 d    6       271 x 166 km
1 25849U 99036C   99200.04777745  .03474903  42731-2  83153-3 0 90370
2 25849  62.7990 325.4038 0079704 122.4516 238.3215 16.20518015  1718
Moln 3-50 plat   3.0  2.0  0.0  6.0 d    6       255 x 161 km
1 25849U 99036C   99200.54086006  .04262180  67491-2  78765-3 0 90374
2 25849  62.7977 323.4025 0071703 122.5497 238.1449 16.24303545  1796
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Object: #25859 = 99- 38 B = Progress M-42 Soyuz-U r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jul 17 05:13     Jul 19 03:58 +-1d         2.5 S     6.4 E
SpaceCom   Jul 18 00:35     Jul 19 00:54 +-15h       25.8 N    30.1 E
SpaceCom   Jul 18 12:52     Jul 19 01:00 +-9h         4.9 N    45.9 E
SpaceCom   Jul 18 19:03     Jul 19 01:00 +-9h         4.9 N    45.9 E

SatEvo     Jul 17 19:00     Jul 19 04:37 +-12h
SatEvo     Jul 18 20:00     Jul 19 02:25 +-5h         0.0      27.2 E

Latest elset, 9 sec early against yesterday's prediction:
ProgM42 Soyuz r  6.0  3.0  0.0  5.0 d   15       181 x 167 km
1 25859U 99038B   99199.40194881  .05590801  12312-4  57503-3 0   108
2 25859  51.6389 183.8986 0010725  91.0189 269.5589 16.36821634   283

SatEvo prediction ofr final orbits:
ProgM42 Soyuz r  6.0  3.0  0.0  5.0 d   15       154 x 145 km
1 25859U 99038B   99199.88904870  .16457993  21331+0  35011-3 0 90108
2 25859  51.6363 181.1417 0006946  93.0754 267.0041 16.46349426   365
ProgM42 Soyuz r  6.0  3.0  0.0  5.0 d   15       147 x 139 km
1 25859U 99038B   99199.94970372  .21953379  40544+0  30665-3 0 90107
2 25859  51.6357 180.7952 0006124  93.3339 266.7362 16.48642702   375
ProgM42 Soyuz r  6.0  3.0  0.0  5.0 d   15       137 x 131 km
1 25859U 99038B   99200.01025765  .35397754  11909+1  28578-3 0 90103
2 25859  51.6349 180.4480 0004996  93.5930 266.4641 16.51966399   386
ProgM42 Soyuz r  6.0  3.0  0.0  5.0 d   15       117 x 114 km
1 25859U 99038B   99200.07063736 1.12627662  10754+2  33423-3 0 90102
2 25859  51.6335 180.0994 0002874  93.8531 266.1797 16.59156703   398

Note: I am predicting re-entry near the southbound equator crossing 
(over Zaire) on the last of these orbits. That rev takes it S of 
San Diego at 01:51, over Denver at 01:55, Minneapolis at 01:57 an 
onwards over SE Canada. SpaceCom has re-entry one orbit earlier.
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/