Decay watch: July 17

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 17 Jul 1999 20:13:04 +0100

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Object: #14168 = 83- 65 C = Galaxy 1 PAM D r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jul 13 00:06     Jul 16 23:48 +-2d        10.0 S     1.5 E
SpaceCom   Jul 14 01:48     Jul 16 20:11 +-2d         2.6 S    92.4 W
SpaceCom   Jul 15 02:27     Jul 17 01:31 +-1d        10.8 N    25.9 E
SpaceCom   Jul 16 11:52     Jul 16 23:54 +-15h        2.7 S    18.1 E
SpaceCom   Jul 16 17:47     Jul 16 23:58 +-15h        3.6 N    30.0 E
SpaceCom   Jul 16 23:26     Jul 16 23:58 +-15h        4.0 N    32.8 E
SpaceCom   Jul 17 00:46     Jul 16 23:58 +-15h        4.0 N    32.8 E

SatEvo     Jul 13 19:35     Jul 17 03:03 +-1d
SatEvo     Jul 14 18:30     Jul 17 06:01 +-1d
SatEvo     Jul 15 19:45     Jul 17 07:30 +-1d
SatEvo     Jul 16 18:45     Jul 17 03:03 +-9h        19.9 N    32.1 E

Final elset, for the same rev as the one I posted here yesterday:
Galaxy 1 r (PAM D)                    3.39       411 x 156 km
1 14168U 83065C   99196.88166399  .08465079 -14336-4  20205-2 0  1541
2 14168  23.0290 324.8936 0191673  42.7443 318.7701 15.96835524299560

Note: I presume that SpaceCom lost this more than a day before 
it re-entered.
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Object: #25849 = 99- 36 C = Molniya 3-50 platform

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jul 17 02:50     Jul 21 02:51 +-3d        62.3 S   125.4 E

SatEvo     Jul 14 18:40     Jul 20 08:08 +-1.5d
SatEvo     Jul 15 20:00     Jul 20 17:19 +-1.3d
SatEvo     Jul 16 19:00     Jul 20 11:24 +-20h
SatEvo     Jul 17 18:55     Jul 21 03:41 +-20h

Latest elset (23 sec late against yesterday's prediction):
Moln 3-50 plat   3.0  2.0  0.0  6.0 d    6       310 x 174 km
1 25849U 99036C   99198.50077136  .02216647  82538-5  83602-3 0   330
2 25849  62.8016 331.6235 0102692 122.9521 238.1558 16.11867548  1468

SatEvo prediction:
Moln 3-50 plat   3.0  2.0  0.0  6.0 d    6       298 x 171 km
1 25849U 99036C   99199.05864035  .02511102  19135-2  82147-3 0 90339
2 25849  62.8007 329.3892 0096229 123.0611 237.8666 16.14483629  1554
Moln 3-50 plat   3.0  2.0  0.0  6.0 d    6       287 x 168 km
1 25849U 99036C   99199.55373082  .02844090  26280-2  79837-3 0 90337
2 25849  62.7998 327.3987 0090044 123.1584 237.7086 16.17126306  1637
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Object: #25859 = 99- 38 B = Progress M-42 Soyuz-U r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jul 17 05:13     Jul 19 03:58 +-1d         2.5 S     6.4 E

SatEvo     Jul 17 19:00     Jul 19 04:37 +-12h

Latest elset:
ProgM42 Soyuz r  6.0  3.0  0.0  5.0 d   15       211 x 184 km
1 25859U 99038B   99198.42222466  .02798004  12096-4  65883-3 0    66
2 25859  51.6427 189.3742 0020620  87.7178 272.6206 16.28234759   123

SatEvo prediction:
ProgM42 Soyuz r  6.0  3.0  0.0  5.0 d   15       197 x 174 km
1 25859U 99038B   99199.03512865  .04263381  97977-2  65735-3 0 90060
2 25859  51.6414 185.9575 0017625  90.2657 269.9363 16.32680375   225
ProgM42 Soyuz r  6.0  3.0  0.0  5.0 d   15       190 x 169 km
1 25859U 99038B   99199.27978177  .05150366  14905-1  62844-3 0 90064
2 25859  51.6408 184.5869 0016159  91.2878 268.8973 16.34968023   266
ProgM42 Soyuz r  6.0  3.0  0.0  5.0 d   15       181 x 162 km
1 25859U 99038B   99199.52405421  .06601068  24283-1  59064-3 0 90060
2 25859  51.6399 183.2135 0014418  92.3121 267.8530 16.37805731   308
ProgM42 Soyuz r  6.0  3.0  0.0  5.0 d   15       170 x 154 km
1 25859U 99038B   99199.76784058  .09093307  49501-1  47775-3 0 90062
2 25859  51.6389 181.8364 0012268  93.3392 266.8011 16.41558637   349
ProgM42 Soyuz r  6.0  3.0  0.0  5.0 d   15       152 x 140 km
1 25859U 99038B   99200.01093836  .17572222  24543+0  28599-3 0 90067
2 25859  51.6373 180.4541 0009161  94.3703 265.7343 16.47509827   382

Note: This orbits close to Mir's orbital plane but, of course, is much 
lower. It enters eclipse near northern apex (its most northerly point)
at about 22:00 local time and exits eclipse while southbound near
17 deg S at about 06:00 local time.
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/