Decay watch: July 16

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Fri, 16 Jul 1999 20:06:47 +0100

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Object: #14168 = 83- 65 C = Galaxy 1 PAM D r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jul 13 00:06     Jul 16 23:48 +-2d        10.0 S     1.5 E
SpaceCom   Jul 14 01:48     Jul 16 20:11 +-2d         2.6 S    92.4 W
SpaceCom   Jul 15 02:27     Jul 17 01:31 +-1d        10.8 N    25.9 E
SpaceCom   Jul 16 11:52     Jul 16 23:54 +-15h        2.7 S    18.1 E
SpaceCom   Jul 16 17:47     Jul 16 23:58 +-15h        3.6 S    30.0 E

SatEvo     Jul 13 19:35     Jul 17 03:03 +-1d
SatEvo     Jul 14 18:30     Jul 17 06:01 +-1d
SatEvo     Jul 15 19:45     Jul 17 07:30 +-1d
SatEvo     Jul 16 18:45     Jul 17 03:03 +-9h        19.9 N    32.1 E

Latest elset (4 sec early against yesterday's prediction):
Galaxy 1 r (PAM D)                    3.39       416 x 149 km
1 14168U 83065C   99196.88166226  .08787933 -14328-4  14227-2 0  1533
2 14168  23.0282 324.8825 0200686  42.9907 318.5993 15.97091907299561

SatEvo prediction:
Galaxy 1 r (PAM D)                    3.39       283 x 138 km
1 14168U 83065C   99197.81172375  .22275194  13812+0  10373-2 0 91534
2 14168  23.0242 317.4203 0110100  56.1058 304.9365 16.23460135299712
Galaxy 1 r (PAM D)                    3.39       210 x 128 km
1 14168U 83065C   99198.05642397  .50724177  12149+1  87206-3 0 91531
2 14168  23.0221 315.3961 0063186  59.6635 300.9599 16.38853148299752
Galaxy 1 r (PAM D)                    3.39       174 x 119 km
1 14168U 83065C   99198.11711861 1.03531806  68740+1  85938-3 0 91533
2 14168  23.0210 314.8850 0042658  60.5617 299.8633 16.47270906299764

Note: Although SpaceCom has issued two decay notices in the past seven
hours, the latest released elset is 21+ hours old. I guesstimate that
decay may be near perigee on the final orbit above, but it may survive
a good fraction of that rev.
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Object: #25849 = 99- 36 C = Molniya 3-50 platform

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SatEvo     Jul 14 18:40     Jul 20 08:08 +-1.5d
SatEvo     Jul 15 20:00     Jul 20 17:19 +-1.3d
SatEvo     Jul 16 19:00     Jul 20 11:24 +-20h

Latest elset (41 sec late against yesterday's prediction):
Moln 3-50 plat   3.0  2.0  0.0  6.0 d    6       330 x 176 km
1 25849U 99036C   99197.50687202  .01964429  81791-5  87286-3 0   294
2 25849  62.8049 335.5876 0116019 123.3590 237.8720 16.07641516  1307

SatEvo prediction:
Moln 3-50 plat   3.0  2.0  0.0  6.0 d    6       319 x 174 km
1 25849U 99036C   99198.00404461  .02462696  16366-2  95844-3 0 90295
2 25849  62.8041 333.6085 0110028 123.4551 237.6015 16.10134018  1383
Moln 3-50 plat   3.0  2.0  0.0  6.0 d    6       308 x 171 km
1 25849U 99036C   99198.50047961  .02743865  21781-2  93615-3 0 90299
2 25849  62.8033 331.6253 0103454 123.5515 237.4407 16.12712139  1465
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/