Decay watch: July 13

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Tue, 13 Jul 1999 20:46:41 +0100

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Object: #25376 = 98- 39 A = Cosmos 2359

Note: This Russian surveillance satellite was de-orbited yesterday,
July 12. The final elset reads...
Cosmos 2359      6.0  2.0  0.0  5.0 d 19.0       234 x 212 km
1 25376U 98039A   99193.54243076  .00466583  72966-5  25986-3 0  8476
2 25376  64.8510 195.8059 0016448  92.9601 267.3513 16.18724768 61303
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Object: #25779 = 99- 32 C = Iridium 14A CSL02 rocket

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jul  8 19:05     Jul 12 18:48 +-19h       75.6 N   119.2 W
SpaceCom   Jul  8 23:06     Jul 12 20:21 +-2d        85.9 N    43.0 W
SpaceCom   Jul  9 16:53     Jul 12 20:34 +-2d        35.8 N    17.0 E
SpaceCom   Jul 11 04:23     Jul 13 04:51 +-1d         3.2 N    75.2 E
SpaceCom   Jul 12 00:42     Jul 13 01:09 +-15h        0.5 N    49.5 W
SpaceCom   Jul 12 12:37     Jul 13 00:03 +-8h        83.9 S     4.5 E
SpaceCom   Jul 12 19:40     Jul 13 01:28 +-4h        77.6 S    37.3 W
SpaceCom   Jul 12 23:40     Jul 13 02:02 +-2h        36.1 N   120.0 E
SpaceCom   Jul 13 04:41     Jul 13 02:01 +-44m       29.2 N   119.8 E

SatEvo     Jul  8 22:25     Jul 13 04:56 +-21h
SatEvo     Jul  9 19:45     Jul 12 21:33 +-15h
SatEvo     Jul 10 18:50     Jul 13 04:56 +-12h
SatEvo     Jul 11 17:55     Jul 13 04:47 +-7h         7.3 N    75.5 E
SatEvo     Jul 12 17:50     Jul 13 02:02 +-3h        50.7 N   120.9 E
SatEvo     Jul 13 18:20     Jul 13 02:05 +-30m       62.7 N   122.8 E

Final elset (6 sec late against yesterday's final prediction):
Irid 14A CSL02r  9.6  3.4  0.0  4.5 d   20       147 x 118 km
1 25779U 99032C   99194.01593597  .30668510 -13536-5  20543-3 0  1064
2 25779  86.3492  77.5176 0022067  61.9911 298.5950 16.52526127  4932

Note: This kept quite close to the decay schedule I predicted
yesterday. I put decay on a northbound track to the N of China. It 
is possible that it survived to cross southbound over E Canada
and the NE USA (02:23 UTC) en route to the Caribbean and Venezuela 
(02:31), but probably not much further.
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Object: #14168 = 83- 65 C = Galaxy 1 PAM D r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jul 13 00:06     Jul 16 23:48 +-2d        10.0 S     1.5 E

SatEvo     Jul 13 19:35     Jul 17 03:03 +-1d

Latest elset:
Galaxy 1 r (PAM D)                    3.39       624 x 154 km
1 14168U 83065C   99194.09679655  .05136791 -13272-4  15623-2 0  1365
2 14168  23.0802 346.2726 0347457   8.7947 351.8399 15.59618108299127

SatEvo prediction:
Galaxy 1 r (PAM D)                    3.39       565 x 151 km
1 14168U 83065C   99195.05326634  .06008191  37346-2  15199-2 0 91363
2 14168  23.0785 339.0702 0307330  21.4451 339.8154 15.70215810299276
Galaxy 1 r (PAM D)                    3.39       497 x 148 km
1 14168U 83065C   99196.00267676  .07427854  66915-2  12910-2 0 91363
2 14168  23.0765 331.8011 0260154  34.2129 327.4365 15.82841534299428
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/