Decay watch: July 12
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 12 Jul 1999 19:20:25 +0100
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Object: #25779 = 99- 32 C = Iridium 14A CSL02 rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jul 8 19:05 Jul 12 18:48 +-19h 75.6 N 119.2 W
SpaceCom Jul 8 23:06 Jul 12 20:21 +-2d 85.9 N 43.0 W
SpaceCom Jul 9 16:53 Jul 12 20:34 +-2d 35.8 N 17.0 E
SpaceCom Jul 11 04:23 Jul 13 04:51 +-1d 3.2 N 75.2 E
SpaceCom Jul 12 00:42 Jul 13 01:09 +-15h 0.5 N 49.5 W
SpaceCom Jul 12 12:37 Jul 13 00:03 +-8h 83.9 S 4.5 E
SatEvo Jul 8 22:25 Jul 13 04:56 +-21h
SatEvo Jul 9 19:45 Jul 12 21:33 +-15h
SatEvo Jul 10 18:50 Jul 13 04:56 +-12h
SatEvo Jul 11 17:55 Jul 13 04:47 +-7h 7.3 N 75.5 E
SatEvo Jul 12 17:50 Jul 13 02:02 +-3h 50.7 N 120.9 E
Latest elset (10 sec early against yesterday's prediction):
Irid 14A CSL02r 9.6 3.4 0.0 4.5 d 20 219 x 138 km
1 25779U 99032C 99193.46741312 .09212211 -11020-5 30676-3 0 1021
2 25779 86.3570 77.8296 0061402 51.8272 308.8953 16.35278617 4846
SatEvo prediction:
Irid 14A CSL02r 9.6 3.4 0.0 4.5 d 20 182 x 127 km
1 25779U 99032C 99193.83365567 .17517742 15339+0 24682-3 0 91021
2 25779 86.3539 77.6179 0042392 50.1958 310.1767 16.44225648 4901
Irid 14A CSL02r 9.6 3.4 0.0 4.5 d 20 173 x 124 km
1 25779U 99032C 99193.89447212 .20787019 20139+0 23377-3 0 91029
2 25779 86.3532 77.5824 0037866 49.9225 310.4089 16.46546011 4916
Irid 14A CSL02r 9.6 3.4 0.0 4.5 d 20 163 x 120 km
1 25779U 99032C 99193.95519430 .24453598 17025+0 21031-3 0 91029
2 25779 86.3523 77.5469 0032687 49.6487 310.6361 16.49299385 4922
Irid 14A CSL02r 9.6 3.4 0.0 4.5 d 20 149 x 115 km
1 25779U 99032C 99194.01580343 .33858332 75477+0 20785-3 0 91023
2 25779 86.3512 77.5112 0026552 49.3742 310.8562 16.52741109 4936
Irid 14A CSL02r 9.6 3.4 0.0 4.5 d 20 129 x 106 km
1 25779U 99032C 99194.07625256 .64209339 31754+1 22991-3 0 91025
2 25779 86.3496 77.4754 0017546 49.0988 311.0529 16.58209386 4949
Note: This is decaying more quickly than expected. I predict re-entry
while northbound over China, more than one orbit later than SpaceCom
(though the uncertainty is greater than the difference in prediction.
Further along the final orbit above, it crosses southbound over E Canada
and the NE USA, passing between Montreal and Quebec at 02:22 UTC and
between New York and Boston a minute later. There are evening chances
for observation from Europe in the next few hours.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/