Decay watch: July 11

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 11 Jul 1999 19:28:17 +0100

---------------------------------------------------------------------
Object: #25779 = 99- 32 C = Iridium 14A CSL02 rocket

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jul  8 19:05     Jul 12 18:48 +-19h       75.6 N   119.2 W
SpaceCom   Jul  8 23:06     Jul 12 20:21 +-2d        85.9 N    43.0 W
SpaceCom   Jul  9 16:53     Jul 12 20:34 +-2d        35.8 N    17.0 E
SpaceCom   Jul 11 04:23     Jul 13 04:51 +-1d         3.2 N    75.2 E

SatEvo     Jul  8 22:25     Jul 13 04:56 +-21h
SatEvo     Jul  9 19:45     Jul 12 21:33 +-15h
SatEvo     Jul 10 18:50     Jul 13 04:56 +-12h
SatEvo     Jul 11 17:55     Jul 13 04:47 +-7h         7.3 N    75.5 E

Latest elset (6 sec late against yesterday's prediction):
Irid 14A CSL02r  9.6  3.4  0.0  4.5 d   20       264 x 146 km
1 25779U 99032C   99192.73064748  .04580549 -13275-5  32315-3 0   977
2 25779  86.3565  78.2507 0089891  53.2112 307.9085 16.25312114  4724

SatEvo prediction:
Irid 14A CSL02r  9.6  3.4  0.0  4.5 d   20       250 x 143 km
1 25779U 99032C   99193.03813578  .05853811  12154-1  30925-3 0 90974
2 25779  86.3554  78.0760 0081389  51.8652 308.8656 16.28639376  4772
Irid 14A CSL02r  9.6  3.4  0.0  4.5 d   20       220 x 135 km
1 25779U 99032C   99193.52870633  .08810764  32936-1  25381-3 0 90976
2 25779  86.3529  77.7953 0064305  49.7027 310.8576 16.35596673  4858
Irid 14A CSL02r  9.6  3.4  0.0  4.5 d   20       167 x 120 km
1 25779U 99032C   99194.01651234  .20113686  23212+0  18261-3 0 90972
2 25779  86.3484  77.5123 0036282  47.5241 312.7820 16.48383136  4936
Irid 14A CSL02r  9.6  3.4  0.0  4.5 d   20       116 x 100 km
1 25779U 99032C   99194.19805443 1.20929383  16971+2  29451-3 0 90973
2 25779  86.3446  77.4050 0012410  46.6991 313.4042 16.62014545  4969
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Object: #25376 = 98- 39 A = Cosmos 2359

Decay prediction:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SatEvo     Jul 10 18:50     Jul 25 13:00 +-4d

Latest elset:
Cosmos 2359      6.0  2.0  0.0  5.0 d 19.0       237 x 214 km
1 25376U 98039A   99192.55364116  .00427559  72804-5  25554-3 0  8387
2 25376  64.8517 199.5110 0017082  92.9906 267.3224 16.17769677 61140

Note: Thanks to Bjoern Gimle and Kim Pettersson for the heads up about
this Russian Yantar-4KS1 military surveillance satellite. It was last 
boosted on June 29 when its orbit was raised from 258x231 km to 
265x235 km. This was a smaller boost than usual; on average the four 
previous boosts have raised the orbit to ~283x240 km and were executed 
when the mean motion increased above 16.1 revs/day. Since then the 
orbit appears to have evolved entirely under the influence of drag, 
the orbit falling to 237x214 km and the mean motion increasing to 
16.18. The decay prediction assumes that there are no further
manoeuvres.

It reaches northern apex near midnight local time and is sunlight
all around its orbit, so is well placed for observation.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/