Decay watch: July 8 (New launch & Irid 14A r)

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Thu, 8 Jul 1999 23:56:14 +0100

SpaceCom is reporting elsets for four newly launched objects,
all called "UNK". Meantime, Spacewarn Bulletin 13026 names the
payload as #25847 = Molniya 3, which I take to be Molniya 3-50. 
The associated Molniya rocket and platform are in LEO and may decay 
about July 19 and 18 respectively according to my preliminary 
estimates.

The latest elsets for these are:

Molniya 3-50                                     40833 x 474 km
1 25847U 99036A   99189.41617867  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    68
2 25847  62.8376   7.1108 7465125 280.2815  10.5239  1.95365542    14
Molniya 3-50 r1                                  381 x 213 km
1 25848U 99036B   99189.66811200  .00946437  79201-5  13089-2 0    41
2 25848  62.8153   6.1412 0125903 131.3831 239.3232 15.91988325    58
Molniya 3-50 platform                            449 x 190 km
1 25849U 99036C   99189.73141990  .01317713  00000-0  12238-2 0    54
2 25849  62.8153   5.9118 0193624 124.0169 238.0435 15.83815129    72
Molniya 3-50 r2                                  40596 x 467 km
1 25850U 99036D   99189.41617155  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    28
2 25850  62.8328   7.1448 7456126 280.1641  10.6083  1.96689411    23

The rocket enters eclipse at about 18:30 local time near 35 deg S
while southbound. Eclipse exit occurs at about 05:30 local time 
just south of the equator on the northbound leg.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Object: #25779 = 99- 32 C = Iridium 14A CSL02 rocket

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jul  8 19:05     Jul 12 18:48 +-19h       75.6 N   119.2 W

SatEvo     Jul  8 22:25     Jul 13 04:56 +-21h

Latest elset:
Irid 14A CSL02r  9.6  3.4  0.0  4.5 d   20       358 x 157 km
1 25779U 99032C   99189.81797269  .02503014 -14093-5  56244-3 0   799
2 25779  86.3666  79.8762 0151543  63.1927 298.4824 16.06226802  4254

SatEvo prediction:
Irid 14A CSL02r  9.6  3.4  0.0  4.5 d   20       353 x 156 km
1 25779U 99032C   99190.00479854  .02502919  12145-2  53221-3 0 90795
2 25779  86.3663  79.7734 0148484  62.3981 299.1020 16.07158061  4281
Irid 14A CSL02r  9.6  3.4  0.0  4.5 d   20       340 x 155 km
1 25779U 99032C   99190.50252297  .02704884  15069-2  49363-3 0 90795
2 25779  86.3653  79.4989 0139965  60.2760 301.1097 16.09746514  4360
Irid 14A CSL02r  9.6  3.4  0.0  4.5 d   20       325 x 153 km
1 25779U 99032C   99191.06146453  .02996787  20177-2  45150-3 0 90794
2 25779  86.3641  79.1892 0129630  57.8830 303.3686 16.12925352  4456

Note: A burst of strong drag around July 6 damaged the life expectancy
of this decayer, bringing decay forwards by a day or more.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/