Decay watch: July 8 (New launch & Irid 14A r)
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Thu, 8 Jul 1999 23:56:14 +0100
SpaceCom is reporting elsets for four newly launched objects,
all called "UNK". Meantime, Spacewarn Bulletin 13026 names the
payload as #25847 = Molniya 3, which I take to be Molniya 3-50.
The associated Molniya rocket and platform are in LEO and may decay
about July 19 and 18 respectively according to my preliminary
estimates.
The latest elsets for these are:
Molniya 3-50 40833 x 474 km
1 25847U 99036A 99189.41617867 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 68
2 25847 62.8376 7.1108 7465125 280.2815 10.5239 1.95365542 14
Molniya 3-50 r1 381 x 213 km
1 25848U 99036B 99189.66811200 .00946437 79201-5 13089-2 0 41
2 25848 62.8153 6.1412 0125903 131.3831 239.3232 15.91988325 58
Molniya 3-50 platform 449 x 190 km
1 25849U 99036C 99189.73141990 .01317713 00000-0 12238-2 0 54
2 25849 62.8153 5.9118 0193624 124.0169 238.0435 15.83815129 72
Molniya 3-50 r2 40596 x 467 km
1 25850U 99036D 99189.41617155 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 28
2 25850 62.8328 7.1448 7456126 280.1641 10.6083 1.96689411 23
The rocket enters eclipse at about 18:30 local time near 35 deg S
while southbound. Eclipse exit occurs at about 05:30 local time
just south of the equator on the northbound leg.
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Object: #25779 = 99- 32 C = Iridium 14A CSL02 rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jul 8 19:05 Jul 12 18:48 +-19h 75.6 N 119.2 W
SatEvo Jul 8 22:25 Jul 13 04:56 +-21h
Latest elset:
Irid 14A CSL02r 9.6 3.4 0.0 4.5 d 20 358 x 157 km
1 25779U 99032C 99189.81797269 .02503014 -14093-5 56244-3 0 799
2 25779 86.3666 79.8762 0151543 63.1927 298.4824 16.06226802 4254
SatEvo prediction:
Irid 14A CSL02r 9.6 3.4 0.0 4.5 d 20 353 x 156 km
1 25779U 99032C 99190.00479854 .02502919 12145-2 53221-3 0 90795
2 25779 86.3663 79.7734 0148484 62.3981 299.1020 16.07158061 4281
Irid 14A CSL02r 9.6 3.4 0.0 4.5 d 20 340 x 155 km
1 25779U 99032C 99190.50252297 .02704884 15069-2 49363-3 0 90795
2 25779 86.3653 79.4989 0139965 60.2760 301.1097 16.09746514 4360
Irid 14A CSL02r 9.6 3.4 0.0 4.5 d 20 325 x 153 km
1 25779U 99032C 99191.06146453 .02996787 20177-2 45150-3 0 90794
2 25779 86.3641 79.1892 0129630 57.8830 303.3686 16.12925352 4456
Note: A burst of strong drag around July 6 damaged the life expectancy
of this decayer, bringing decay forwards by a day or more.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/