Re: Latest elsets for decaying #24454

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Fri, 25 Jul 1997 23:21:09 +0100

In message <9707252124.AA19159@cds.plasma.mpe-garching.mpg.de>, Bjoern
Gimle <b_gimle@algonet.se> writes
>Element set number = 2
>1 24454U 96058E   97206.69484821  .99999999  14399-5  17705-2 0  3048
>2 24454  46.7409 153.7514 0900917 124.6307 250.0130 14.46057827  8694
>Element set number = 3
>1 24454U 96058E   97206.55545856  .93017719  15072-4  18287-2 0  3037
>2 24454  46.7399 154.3998 1037731 124.2438 248.5752 14.13407002  8670
>
>This is later than evolution, so it should probably decay around 03 UT
>tonight over the US.

My SatEvo evolution through these and the preceding three elsets (since
July 25.04) gives a mean residual of 3.7 sec and the maximum residual of
14.6 sec at July 25.55. If decay occurs near perigee on the final
predicted rev below, it would be at about July 26.045 (01:05 UTC); one
rev later would make it about July 26.106 (02:33 UTC).

Predicted elsets:
SL-12 r (aux motor)                              1205 x 97 km
1 24454U 96058E   97206.76186063 1.54122862  86247+0  24873-2 0 93017
2 24454  46.6947 153.4252 0788072 125.2377 242.3901 14.73099864  8705
SL-12 r (aux motor)                              1067 x 97 km
1 24454U 96058E   97206.82901347 1.75526383  12915+1  26356-2 0 93013
2 24454  46.6870 153.0892 0696385 125.5690 241.1204 14.95142916  8717
SL-12 r (aux motor)                              913 x 97 km
1 24454U 96058E   97206.89509901 2.07602556  21593+1  28386-2 0 93010
2 24454  46.6781 152.7472 0592356 125.9063 239.7347 15.20295467  8720
SL-12 r (aux motor)                              733 x 97 km
1 24454U 96058E   97206.95996896 2.68499979  49184+1  32179-2 0 93011
2 24454  46.6705 152.3978 0467766 126.2510 238.1617 15.50587426  8736
SL-12 r (aux motor)                              485 x 97 km
1 24454U 96058E   97207.02328554 4.63655352  29406+2  41768-2 0 93016
2 24454  46.6555 152.0391 0291199 126.6051 236.1109 15.94086921  8741

Alan
-- 
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