Re: Cosmos-2313 explosion?

Bjoern Gimle (b_gimle@algonet.se)
Thu, 3 Jul 1997 22:20:57 +0200

Vladimir Agapov informed us:
>
>No, explosion took place on Jun 26 (day 177) between 0212 and 0312 UTC as I was
>confirmed by some Russian sources. So, large MM increase on day 97125 was
>really a manoeuvre and not connected to explosion of this object.

This is also confirmed by orbital analysis. Small effects can be seen
on the orbit of the main piece (#23596). The inclination, decreasing
by about 0.0019 degrees/day, made a 0.008 increase on the day of the
collision. Drag seems to have increased, at least from the day after
the collision, so that I (SatEvo) predict the decay around July 11.

The small effects on #23596 makes it difficult to use pre- and post-
collision elsets for it to verify the collision time, but Vladimir
Agapov provided some elsets for the resulting debris.

COLA gave these close encounters with the 97176.85 23596 elset:
   Date    Local Time Norad           Name           Range (km)  EphAge
 6/26/1997  2:57:59.7 80200 95028                       5.0     -0.36
 6/26/1997  2:53:33.2 80201                             4.4     -0.43
 6/26/1997  2:53:33.2 80201                             4.4     -0.43
 6/26/1997  2:54:19.6 80201                             6.0     -0.50
 6/26/1997  2:54:00.3 80201                             8.0     -0.69
 6/26/1997  2:54:51.5 80201                             6.6     -1.08
 6/26/1997  2:56:49.9 80201                             1.0     -1.40
 6/26/1997  2:52:27.2 80203 95028                      20.3     -0.37
 6/26/1997  2:56:35.9 80204 95028                       2.1     -0.43
 6/26/1997  2:53:34.6 80205 95028                       8.7     -0.50
 6/26/1997  2:55:03.8 80206 95028                       3.8     -0.49
 6/26/1997  2:55:33.3 80206 95028                       2.8     -0.82
 6/26/1997  2:58:34.4 80206 95028                       4.5     -1.39
 6/26/1997  2:54:25.5 80206 95028                       6.0     -4.74
 6/26/1997  5:47:09.7 80209 95028                      14.3     -0.29
 6/26/1997 11:02:04.1 80210 95028                       6.9     -0.08
 6/26/1997 10:47:21.7 80211 95028                       6.5     -0.15
 6/26/1997  7:15:28.5 80217 95028                      13.5     -0.23
 6/26/1997 10:52:46.6 80218 95028                      14.3     -0.52
 6/26/1997  2:58:37.5 80228 95028                       4.7     -5.10
 6/26/1997  2:55:54.0 80240 95028                       3.2     -5.09
 6/26/1997  2:55:41.6 80245 95028                      15.3     -0.17
 6/26/1997  2:53:33.2 80250                             4.4     -0.43
 6/26/1997  2:53:53.7 80250                             4.2     -0.75
 6/26/1997  2:55:11.9 80250                             3.3     -1.40
 6/26/1997  2:55:51.1 80250                             3.7     -5.52
 6/26/1997  2:51:12.6 80253                             5.7     -0.43
 6/26/1997  2:48:55.2 80257                             8.3     -5.07

So, I would say that the explosion (collision??) took place on June 26
around 02:56 UT (day 97177.122) when Cosmos 2313 was at 290 km,
47N, 170E, moving SE. deltaV was less than 1 m/s ?

No object in Mike's ALLDAT.TLE came within 100 km on that orbit.


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