RE: Reentry of 14052B / 40142

From: Ted Molczan via Seesat-l <>
Date: Thu, 1 Jan 2015 13:29:44 -0500
Here is a quick update.

USSTRATCOM's epoch 14361.97334517 TLE looks promising as the basis to propagate the re-entry to theoretical impact.

As is, it requires an unrealistically high value of Cd A / m, but this is highly sensitive to perigee height, which
appears to be at least 10 km too high. Increasing the eccentricity value of the TLE less than 2 percent to 0.0852036,
yields a reasonable trajectory using a reasonable value of Cd A / m (0.11 m^2/kg).

The resulting trajectory appears to be late by a significant fraction of one minute, but otherwise is reasonable. Its
ground track passes within a few kilometres of the location of the second debris find, in Andradina.

I intend to seek the combination of perigee height and Cd A / m that best fits the known facts.

Ted Molczan

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Received on Thu Jan 01 2015 - 12:30:32 UTC

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