RE: Reentry of 14052B / 40142

From: Ted Molczan via Seesat-l <>
Date: Thu, 1 Jan 2015 10:40:14 -0500
I have been working to estimate the descent trajectory of the re-entry, with good progress.

I have just discovered that USSTRATCOM has recently released a new TLE, of epoch 14361.97334517.

My latest preliminary final TLE (as of late last night when I went to bed) agrees closely in inclination and

1 70000U          14362.19556714  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    04
2 70000  25.0158 171.8287 0111105 315.1852 328.2696 16.45849052    08

It is based primarily on the data extracted by Cees Bassa from the image taken by the MASCOT all sky camera at Cerro
Paranal, which he posted to the list:

I have adjusted the times to improve consistency with the likely altitude of the trajectory.

As I write, USSTRATCOM's satellite catalogue has yet to list a decay date for the object, but I suspect that will happen

I intend to propagate the most accurate available final TLE to theoretical impact using GMAT (General Mission Analysis
Tool). Hopefully, USSTRATCOM's new TLE will prove suitable for that purpose. I am optimistic, based on experience with
quite a few other decays.

Ted Molczan

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Received on Thu Jan 01 2015 - 09:41:09 UTC

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