There has been much speculation recently about the possibility that Phobos-Grunt was damaged by a powerful
U.S. radar on Kwajalein, that supposedly was tracking an asteroid. The large asteroid 2005 YU55 did pass
close to Earth (~lunar distance) on the night P-G was launched, and it was tracked by certain radars
(Arecibo, Goldstone). I have yet to find evidence that any of the Kwajalein radars participated, but even
if they did, the following chronology reveals that the asteroid was below Kwajalein's horizon during
both of P-G's passes:
Date UTC Object Event
----------- -------- --------- --------------------------------------
2011-Nov-08 07:40:00 2005 YU55 Kwajalein set (elev 0 deg)
2011 Nov 08 20:16:03 P-G launch
2011 Nov 08 20:40:08 P-G Kwajalein rise (elev 0 deg)
2011 Nov 08 20:44:32 P-G Kwajalein culm (elev 24 deg, az 53 deg)
2011 Nov 08 20:49:07 P-G Kwajalein set (elev 0 deg)
2011 Nov 08 22:14:35 P-G Kwajalein rise (elev 0 deg)
2011 Nov 08 22:18:01 P-G Kwajalein culm (elev 7 deg, az 234 deg)
2011 Nov 08 22:21:30 P-G Kwajalein set (elev 0 deg)
2011 Nov 08 22:55:48 P-G burn #1 ignition failure
2011-Nov-09 00:40:00 2005 YU55 Kwajalein rise (elev 0 deg)
P-G events computed using USSTRATCOM TLE of epoch 11313.39819696. 2005 YU55 events computed using JPL-Horizons.
Ted Molczan
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