phobos grunt decay prediction

From: abdolreza lavari (a.lavari@gmail.com)
Date: Fri Jan 13 2012 - 07:20:03 UTC

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    Hi everyone
    
    If we combine USSTRATCOM's TLE of epoch  11349.93297346 to
    12013.01842730 with  SATEVO predictions from last TLE we will obtain
    this graph (height of perigee above sphere  versus  time) in heavensat
    .as you can see there is  a good conformity between USSTRATCOM's TLE
    and what have been predicted by satevo.
    With  respect to graph slopes we can see that satevo has  very good
    prediction for decay (16.1228  ::  16 JAN  at 3 am).if we suppose that
    minimum elevation for satellite decay to start at 85 km above earth
    and with  respect  to slope(vey important) I have created last two
    points by changing mean motion from  16.63867321 (predicted by satevo)
    to 16.65960069 and  16.69960069 in final TLE .It  should be  mentioned
     that  I have done prediction manually and  with respect to slope .
    
    http://www.haftaseman.ir/images/phobos.gif
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