Russell Eberst has reported new observations: http://satobs.org/seesat/Jan-2008/0264.html The object was about 12 s early relative the elements I posted yesterday, indicating that the rate of decay and mean motion were too low. Taking advantage of Russell's additional data, yields this improved result: USA 193 5.0 2.5 0.0 4.3 v 267 X 276 km 1 29651U 06057A 08031.26759108 .00111239 00000-0 20229-3 0 09 2 29651 58.4892 119.9472 0006797 98.5905 261.5964 16.00831360 00 Arc 2008 Jan 22.28 - 31.29, WRMS residuals = 0.072 deg Definition of 2-line elements format: http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/realdata/sightings/SSapplications/Post/JavaSSOP/SSOP_Help/tle_def.html Using Satevo v0.51 with a 10.7 cm solar flux of 71, results in a decay prediction for 2008 March 27, in line with earlier estimates. The uncertainty is at least one week. If the object can be observed again over the next day or two, then the Jan 22 data can be discarded, resulting in a more current observational arc, which should yield more reliable elements, and lower residuals. Ted Molczan ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Subscribe/Unsubscribe info, Frequently Asked Questions, SeeSat-L archive: http://www.satobs.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
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