Updated elements of USA 193

From: Ted Molczan (ssl2molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Thu Jan 31 2008 - 17:27:06 UTC

  • Next message: Robert Holdsworth: "Re: USA193 decay"

    Russell Eberst has reported new observations:
    
    http://satobs.org/seesat/Jan-2008/0264.html
    
    The object was about 12 s early relative the elements I posted yesterday,
    indicating that the rate of decay and mean motion were too low. Taking advantage
    of Russell's additional data, yields this improved result:
    
    USA 193          5.0  2.5  0.0  4.3 v                    267 X 276 km
    1 29651U 06057A   08031.26759108  .00111239  00000-0  20229-3 0    09
    2 29651  58.4892 119.9472 0006797  98.5905 261.5964 16.00831360    00
    Arc 2008 Jan 22.28 - 31.29, WRMS residuals = 0.072 deg
    
    Definition of 2-line elements format:
    
    http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/realdata/sightings/SSapplications/Post/JavaSSOP/SSOP_Help/tle_def.html
    
    Using Satevo v0.51 with a 10.7 cm solar flux of 71, results in a decay
    prediction for 2008 March 27, in line with earlier estimates. The uncertainty is
    at least one week.
    
    If the object can be observed again over the next day or two, then the Jan 22
    data can be discarded, resulting in a more current observational arc, which
    should yield more reliable elements, and lower residuals.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
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