Updated elements of USA 193

From: Ted Molczan (ssl2molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Wed Jan 30 2008 - 10:21:10 UTC

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    Russell Eberst has reported the first new observations in 8 days; the object was
    about 30 s late relative the 8 day old elements, implying a lower recent rate of
    decay.
    
    To update the elements, I propagated the Jan 22 elements to Jan 30, using Alan
    Pickup's Satevo v0.51 program, then corrected only rate of decay, mean anomaly
    and mean motion to fit across the Jan 22-30 arc:
    
    USA 193          5.0  2.5  0.0  4.3 v
    1 29651U 06057A   08030.26831198  .00084342  00000-0  15698-3 0    06
    2 29651  58.4892 124.4395 0007499  96.9889 263.2062 16.00418844    04
    Arc 2008 Jan 22.28 - 30.29, WRMS residuals = 0.069 deg
    
    The cross-track portion of the residuals range between near zero and 0.04 deg.
    
    The mean rate of decay during this arc was about 21 percent less than during the
    previous arc; short-term variations of 25 percent or more are normal.
    
    Using Satevo v0.51 with a 10.7 cm solar flux of 71, results in a decay
    prediction for April 13. This is quite a bit later than my prediction based on
    the Jan 22 elements, but the predictions will bounce around quite a bit, until
    we are closer to decay.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
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