RE: TJM obs of 2007 Jan 01 UTC; USA 193 elements

From: Ted Molczan (molczanseesat@rogers.com)
Date: Tue Jan 02 2007 - 12:03:08 EST

  • Next message: BATALEUR: "(no subject)"

    I am withdrawing the elset I posted yesterday:
    
    > USA 193          5.0  2.5  0.0  3.9 v
    > 1 29651U 06057A   07001.42904861  .00018587  00000-0  15047-3 0    05
    > 2 29651  58.5030  44.8593 0009565  94.4992 265.7186 15.70210945    00
    > Arc 2006 Dec 16.26 - 2007 Jan 01.45, WRMS residuals = 0.029 deg
    
    I had difficulty with Greg's obs of 2005 Dec UTC, which appeared to be about 5 s
    too early, so I removed then from the analysis that yielded the above. Greg has
    since confirmed his timings, and also corrected a couple of the positions (one
    of them slightly). Here are Greg's obs:
    
    29651 06 057A   0433 P 20061225190945500 56 15 0935233-664022 39  +070 05
    29651 06 057A   0433 P 20061225190946600 56 15 0931510-661240 39  +070 05
    29651 06 057A   0433 P 20061225191105500 56 15 0746261-255450 39  +050 05
    
    Further research indicates that the rate of decay had been significantly greater
    during the several days prior to Greg's obs than it has been since then.
    
    I have derived a new elset for Dec 25, using a shorter arc:
    
    USA 193          5.0  2.5  0.0  3.9 v
    1 29651U 06057A   06359.74322900  .00021814  00000-0  17811-3 0    01
    2 29651  58.4998  73.5904 0009991  86.4134 273.8094 15.69998739    09
    Arc 2006 Dec 20.28 - 25.80, WRMS residuals = 0.020 deg
    
    The following elset assumes that the above mean motion was correct, and that a
    decrease in rate of decay accounts for most of the difference between prediction
    and my obs of Jan 01:
    
    USA 193          5.0  2.5  0.0  3.9 v
    1 29651U 06057A   07001.42904772  .00011220  00000-0  91053-4 0    05
    2 29651  58.4998  44.8608 0009788  98.0380 262.1816 15.70148579    01
    Arc 2006 Dec 25.80 - 2007 Jan 01.45, WRMS residuals = 0.015 deg
    
    I suspect that the truth probably is between this elset and the one it replaces;
    also, geomagnetic activity is high at the moment, so I suspect the object may be
    a bit early relative the above.
    
    Clouds moved in 15 min prior to my planned obs of 06057A this morning. I have an
    11 deg pass tomorrow, which may yield one or two points, if the weather
    cooperates.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Subscribe/Unsubscribe info, Frequently Asked Questions, SeeSat-L archive:  
    http://www.satobs.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    



    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Tue Jan 02 2007 - 12:06:47 EST