I am withdrawing the elset I posted yesterday: > USA 193 5.0 2.5 0.0 3.9 v > 1 29651U 06057A 07001.42904861 .00018587 00000-0 15047-3 0 05 > 2 29651 58.5030 44.8593 0009565 94.4992 265.7186 15.70210945 00 > Arc 2006 Dec 16.26 - 2007 Jan 01.45, WRMS residuals = 0.029 deg I had difficulty with Greg's obs of 2005 Dec UTC, which appeared to be about 5 s too early, so I removed then from the analysis that yielded the above. Greg has since confirmed his timings, and also corrected a couple of the positions (one of them slightly). Here are Greg's obs: 29651 06 057A 0433 P 20061225190945500 56 15 0935233-664022 39 +070 05 29651 06 057A 0433 P 20061225190946600 56 15 0931510-661240 39 +070 05 29651 06 057A 0433 P 20061225191105500 56 15 0746261-255450 39 +050 05 Further research indicates that the rate of decay had been significantly greater during the several days prior to Greg's obs than it has been since then. I have derived a new elset for Dec 25, using a shorter arc: USA 193 5.0 2.5 0.0 3.9 v 1 29651U 06057A 06359.74322900 .00021814 00000-0 17811-3 0 01 2 29651 58.4998 73.5904 0009991 86.4134 273.8094 15.69998739 09 Arc 2006 Dec 20.28 - 25.80, WRMS residuals = 0.020 deg The following elset assumes that the above mean motion was correct, and that a decrease in rate of decay accounts for most of the difference between prediction and my obs of Jan 01: USA 193 5.0 2.5 0.0 3.9 v 1 29651U 06057A 07001.42904772 .00011220 00000-0 91053-4 0 05 2 29651 58.4998 44.8608 0009788 98.0380 262.1816 15.70148579 01 Arc 2006 Dec 25.80 - 2007 Jan 01.45, WRMS residuals = 0.015 deg I suspect that the truth probably is between this elset and the one it replaces; also, geomagnetic activity is high at the moment, so I suspect the object may be a bit early relative the above. Clouds moved in 15 min prior to my planned obs of 06057A this morning. I have an 11 deg pass tomorrow, which may yield one or two points, if the weather cooperates. Ted Molczan ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Subscribe/Unsubscribe info, Frequently Asked Questions, SeeSat-L archive: http://www.satobs.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
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