USA 129 manoeuvre alert

From: Ted Molczan (molczan@rogers.com)
Date: Fri Jan 14 2005 - 11:16:10 EST

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    I have updated my review of all USA 129 (96072A / 24680) reboosts during the
    life of USA 164 (01044A / 26943) for which I have orbital elements. The results
    are summarized below:
    
                                 01044A lag
    96072A boost  UTC     Lat      h:mm:ss
    ---------------------------  ----------
    2002 Apr 04  16:27  00.17 S   +2:41:41
    2002 Jun 27  15:09  81.45 N   +2:40:31
    2002 Sep 12  16:35  14.52 S   +2:45:44
    2003 Jan 17  14:03  39.72 N   +2:39:00
    2003 Mar 27  15:46  81.39 S   +2:46:00
    2003 Jun 05  18:44  42.13 N   +2:40:39
    2003 Aug 07  13:58  16.61 S   +2:37:09
    2003 Oct 16  14:33  31.89 S   +2:48:44
    2003 Dec 18  12:54  57.99 N   +2:42:16
    2004 Feb 12  17:34  60.42 N   +2:44:06
    2004 Mar 18  17:43  06.00 S   +2:42:31
    2004 Mar 23  14:16  09.74 N   +2:42:16
    2004 Jun 17  13:55  72.28 S   +2:46:57
    2004 Aug 26  15:21  29.90 N   +2:40:19
    2004 Nov 18  14:43  61.63 N   +2:24:36
    
    The reboost times ranged between 12:54 and 18:44 UTC, about a 6 hour span, that
    seems to fit nicely into an 8 h workday.
    
    Note that at the 2004 Nov 18 reboost, 01044A's lag behind 96072A was
    considerably less than at previous ones. The previous mean lag was +2:42:42,
    with a standard deviation of 00:03:15. The 2004 Nov 18 lag was more than 5 std
    deviations lower than the mean, which seems to be significant.
    
    It is likely that many factors unknowable by us influence the timing of
    reboosts. What is certain is that we should be alert for 96072A reboosts at
    01044A lags as short as +2:24, a threshold I estimate will next be reached on
    2005 Jan 20 UTC.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
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