As Markus Mehring has already reported on SeeSat, there are reports of
an object hitting the ground in Argentina on the morning of the 20th.
This may, indeed, be from the decay of #22879, the GPS 2-23 PAM-D r.
The following notices are a summary from current Decay Watch page.
____________________________________________________________________
Object: #22633 = 93- 25 A = Molniya 3-44
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Jan 21 05:52 Jan 23 21:54 +-2d 51.2 S 162.5 W
SatEvo Jan 21 20:15 Jan 25 17:44 +-1.5d
Latest elset:
Molniya 3-44 3703 x 90 km
1 22633U 93025A 04021.56826542 .26344420 74693-5 61602-3 0 6589
2 22633 63.4843 331.6423 2183360 245.2680 90.6120 11.53488819 80631
SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #22879 = 93- 68 C = GPS 2-23 PAM-D r
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Jan 21 01:04 Jan 20 11:57 +-1m 5.6 S 28.5 W
SatEvo Jan 20 22:50 Jan 20 12:41 +-2h 6.1 S 166.1 E
Final elset:
GPS 2-23 r2 3.0 1.5 0.0 6.5 d 3.3 234 x 141 km
1 22879U 93068C 04020.15194756 .13801213 26169-6 61278-3 0 771
2 22879 34.7155 289.5813 0070838 154.2422 326.3460 16.31920928295390
Note: My estimate is that this decayed southbound over the western
Pacific on the rev following that given by the SatEvo-predicted elset:
GPS 2-23 r2 3.0 1.5 0.0 6.5 d 3.3 165 x 124 km
1 22879U 93068C 04020.43619872 .67058174 38965+1 64315-3 0 90777
2 22879 34.7122 287.4574 0031445 157.3149 202.8244 16.47939777295449
However, the final published elset has an epoch 9 hours before this
so the decay prediction is uncertain. SCC, on the other hand, assigns
an uncertainty of only one minute to its analysis, though this is
identical to that in the previous notice which had an uncertainty of
five hours.
I have received a report of an object hitting the ground in NE
Argentina (Corrientes) at an unspecified time on the morning of the
20th. The impact point is close to the predicted track of this
decayer for 11:41 UTC. I hope to obtain and post more details.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo Home Page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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