Decay watch: 2003 Jan 4

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sun Jan 04 2004 - 11:15:41 EST

  • Next message: Alan Pickup: "Decay watch: 2003 Jan 4 (or not)"

    Happy New Year everyone :-)
    
    I have updated my Decay Watch page with notices for three recent
    decayers (the Express AM-22 Proton and its platform/casing, and a debris
    object from the TVSat Ariane rocket) and a notice for the Cosmos 2397
    aux motor which SCC has decaying tomorrow (I show January 7). I'd like
    to think it was simply a result of disruption to normal services because
    of Christmas and the New Year, but only single elsets were published for
    each of the two Express decayers, making it impossible for me to do my
    usual analyses (though I was also away at the time, too).
    
    I have expanded the page in other respects. The time-ordered list of
    recent decays now includes SCC's report of the decay times, taken from
    SCC's decay reports or from the decay dates listed in the Satellite
    Situation Report and current catalog updates. I have a further new
    section that lists my predicted decays for larger objects over the
    coming months. I intend to update entries in this section on a more
    frequent basis than I was able post my SatEvo decay lists in the past.
    
    Excluding the Cosmos 2397 aux motor, my current predictions read:
    
       #    Designation    Name              Estimated decay   Last updated
                                                  2004            2004
    
     26632   00- 79 B   EROS A1 r                 Jan 16          Jan  4
     22633   93- 25 A   Molniya 3-44              Jan 19          Jan  4
     22879   93- 68 C   GPS 2-23 r2               Jan 21          Jan  4
     27829   03- 27 C   MER-A Delta 2 r           Jan 30          Jan  4
     27839   03- 30 B   OrbView 3 Pegasus r       Feb 23          Jan  4
      4393   70- 37 A   Meteor 1-4                Mar 21          Jan  4
     23332   94- 70 B   Astra 1D Ariane r         Apr  6          Jan  4
     11630   79- 99 B   Cosmos 1145 r             May             Jan  4
     24716   97-  2 D   GE-2 Ariane Spelda        May             Jan  4
     27701   03-  9 D   Meteor 3M-1               Jun             Jan  4
     23955   96- 41 C   GPS 26 PAM r              Jul             Jan  4
     27851   03- 32 C   MER-B Delta 2 r           Jul             Jan  4
    
    Note that most changes to my Decay Watch page are not accompanied by
    corresponding messages to the SeeSat-L list.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo Home Page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
    
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