Decay watch: 2003 January 31

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Fri Jan 31 2003 - 15:04:31 EST

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    One more decayer, #27614 = Cosmos 2393 r1, to add to the other two for 
    which warnings are being posted. The following summary is from my Decay 
    Watch page, where there are further predicted elsets.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #18083 = 87- 48 A = Cosmos 1849
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Jan 31 08:59     Feb  2 09:06 +-1d        60.6 S   148.5 W
    SatEvo     Jan 29 19:20     No prediction at present
    
    Latest elsets:
    Cosmos 1849                                      6528 x 96 km
    1 18083U 87048A   03029.98491432 -.00001022  64632-5  00000-0 0  9915
    2 18083  62.1628 233.8584 3318886 209.5802 336.4127  9.10196716114993
    Cosmos 1849                                      7401 x 96 km
    1 18083U          03030.94528025  .56932428 -99124-5  31211-2 0  9946
    2 18083  62.1837 232.8739 3607108 209.8771 122.7127  8.51985873115072
    Cosmos 1849                                      7433 x 85 km
    1 18083U          03030.94507542  .52624812 -87474-5  16862-2 0  9959
    2 18083  62.1239 232.8928 3624218 210.2248 122.4078  8.50694814115077
    Cosmos 1849                                      7376 x 89 km
    1 18083U          03031.01513163 -.00000880  55624-5  00000-0 0  9935
    2 18083  62.1180 232.7998 3603353 210.0889 338.0691  8.54021112115080
    Cosmos 1849                                      7177 x 83 km
    1 18083U          03031.06212921  .60594103 -10581-4  17496-2 0  9964
    2 18083  62.1054 232.7586 3543708 210.4314 123.9448  8.67119392115091
    Cosmos 1849                                      7179 x 93 km
    1 18083U          03031.12985329 -.34717197  15172-4 -16686-2 0  9974
    2 18083  62.1291 232.6243 3537712 209.9108 336.8759  8.66332935115094
    
    SatEvo prediction: None at present.
    
    Note: It is still difficult to make much sense out of the published
    elsets.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27562 = 02- 52 B = MEPSI
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Jan 31 17:22     Jan 31 23:47 +-5h         3.9 N    27.2 E
    SatEvo     Jan 31 19:35     Jan 31 23:52 +-2h        31.8 S    53.4 E
    
    Latest elset:
    MEPSI            0.1  0.1  0.0  9.5 d  0.1       192 x 185 km
    1 27562U 02052B   03031.62177686  .10433225  12093-4  19148-2 0  1784
    2 27562  51.6334 338.2157 0005412 143.6758  37.7617 16.31497929  9428
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    MEPSI            0.1  0.1  0.0  9.5 d  0.1       171 x 166 km
    1 27562U 02052B   03031.83548772  .25570566  46379+0  21134-2 0 91787
    2 27562  51.6318 337.0167 0003955 144.5705 215.4558 16.38893089  9456
    MEPSI            0.1  0.1  0.0  9.5 d  0.1       161 x 157 km
    1 27562U 02052B   03031.89639435  .39292235  12523+1  20149-2 0 91789
    2 27562  51.6307 336.6720 0003279 144.8277 215.1940 16.42704524  9463
    MEPSI            0.1  0.1  0.0  9.5 d  0.1       140 x 137 km
    1 27562U 02052B   03031.95710932 1.15144271  13978+2  12828-2 0 91780
    2 27562  51.6290 336.3259 0002044 145.0860 214.9274 16.50228849  9476
    
    Note: I have this decaying southbound over the Indian Ocean on the
    last of my SatEvo-predicted orbits.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27614 = 02- 59 B = Cosmos 2393 r1
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Jan 31 08:30     Feb  3 07:07 +-2d        27.8 S   176.3 E
    SatEvo     Jan 31 19:55     Feb  3 09:18 +-20h
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 2393 r1   4.0  2.0  0.0  5.0 d    8       276 x 183 km
    1 27614U 02059B   03031.53469565  .02327850  83816-5  96877-3 0   984
    2 27614  62.7912  82.0953 0070338 110.8351 250.0289 16.16410427  6022
    
    Note: Eclipse entry occurs northbound near 20 deg S in the evening
    sky, with eclipse exit southbound near 49 deg N before dawn.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo Home Page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Fri Jan 31 2003 - 15:14:56 EST