Starshine 3 decay

From: Harro Zimmer (Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de)
Date: Wed Jan 15 2003 - 13:03:00 EST

  • Next message: Harro Zimmer: "Re: Starshine 3"

    Report time 17:00 UTC
    2001-043A (#26929) Starshine 3
    
    A frequent reader of the STARSHINE website
    (http://azinet.com/starshine) may have seen that Jon Boers
    (US Naval Network and Space Operations Command) and I have
    since a couple of months issued frequently decay forecasts 
    for Starshine 3 and for the last weeks roughly every 02 days.
    We were using different approaches (General Perturbation (GP),
    Special Perturbation (SP) and Semi-Analytic Theory (SALT) ) and
    also different atmospheric models.We are exchanged and discussed our results intensively. I think we have developed a realistic understanding for the behaviour of this ideal test object - perfect sphere, with all known parameter like mass, dimensions, rotation and Cd. 
    Let me say at first: Without the exception of a dramatic increase
    of the solar activity the decay window is now not more then
    +/- 12 hours. I have done since 01 January a day by day analysis
    with different methods and SFX and ap forecast inputs from USAF
    and NOAA. The general tendency of all results is very consistent.
     
    It seems that our work and also the activities of Gil Moore,
    the STARSHINE'S project director have activated the SCC (USAF Cheyenne Mountain Operation Center) and the Goddard SFC, Flight
    Dynamics Facility. They have also issued forecasts.In consequence we will see for the next days until decay a more frequent release of ELSETs.
    It is very interesting to see the "reaction" from SCC of our
    activities: They have changed within 02 hours there decay 
    prediction from 21 January/08:39 UTC to 21 January/04:33 UTC.
    
    Now my fresh prediction for the epoch 15 January, 05:34:20 UTC:
    21 January, 05:39 UTC +/- 12 hours (46.73N, 07.81E)
    
    Let me say at second: Important is - not only in this case -
    the human analyst. The SCC ouput is only a rough orientation. 
    Beginning today I will issue a fresh prediction every 24 hours
    and near the decay in shorter intervals.
    
    Harro
    
    Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de
    Berlin, Germany
    
    
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