Decay watch: 2003 January 14

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue Jan 14 2003 - 15:48:36 EST

  • Next message: Matson, Robert: "OT: Starshine 3 Re-Entry Possibilities"

    SCC has posted the first decay notice for Starshine 3. The prediction is 
    included in this summary from my updated Decay Watch page, where I have 
    also added the GSAT-1 GSLV rocket. Check the page for more predicted 
    elsets.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23878 = 96- 33 B = Galaxy 9 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Jan 14 06:04     Jan 17 06:33 +-2d        10.0 S   1114.3 W
    SatEvo     Jan 14 20:10     Jan 17 04:31 +-18h
    
    Latest elset:
    Galaxy 9 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v   12       249 x 202 km
    1 23878U 96033B   03014.57736482  .02439918 -11448-4  12164-2 0  6463
    2 23878  25.7843 142.5348 0035205 228.6238 131.1266 16.17915269348026
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26746 = 01- 15 B = GSAT-1 GSLV rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        No prediction at present
    SatEvo     Jan 14 20:30     Jan 18 19:33 +-2d
    
    Latest elset:
    GSAT-1 GSLV r                                    2913 x 104 km
    1 26746U 01015B   03014.57901547  .23243789 -33757-4  82823-3 0  9802
    2 26746  19.0231 158.6022 1781019  25.1992 347.7433 12.39654517 23764
    
    Note: The SCC elsets show an unrealistic spread of perigee heights,
    though the one suggested by the latest elset is reasonable. This
    enters eclipse at a height of around 1600 km a little after southern
    apex near 19 deg S at ~21:30 local time. Eclipse exit occurs much
    closer to perigee while northbound near 14 deg N before dawn.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26929 = 01- 43 A = Starshine 3
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Jan 14 17:31     Jan 22 03:26 +-4d        66.9 N    33.8 W
    SatEvo     Jan 14 20:20     Jan 20 20:02 +-2d
    
    Latest elset:
    Starshine 3      0.5  0.0  0.0  9.5 d 0.73       245 x 234 km
    1 26929U 01043A   03014.67422930  .00885246  47691-3  78258-3 0  6732
    2 26929  67.0178  80.4976 0007771 332.9237  27.1458 16.12741210 73286
    
    Note: Eclipse entry occurs while northbound near 34 deg S in the
    evening, with eclipse exit southbound near 60 deg N before dawn.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27615 = 02- 59 C = Cosmos 2393 platform
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Jan 14 13:45     Jan 15 12:23 +-14h        7.3 N   152.8 W
    SatEvo     Jan 14 20:00     Jan 15 12:51 +-7h        35.4 N     6.1 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 2393 Pl   3.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d    6       247 x 156 km
    1 27615U 02059C   03014.53384568  .05648955  84759-5  81160-3 0   728
    2 27615  62.8134 146.6079 0068432 112.8872 247.9642 16.26707229  3348
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Cosmos 2393 Pl   3.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d    6       230 x 150 km
    1 27615U 02059C   03014.84078702  .07879855  26051-1  61741-3 0 90728
    2 27615  62.8121 145.3513 0060511 112.9474 247.6922 16.30937556  3398
    Cosmos 2393 Pl   3.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d    6       217 x 146 km
    1 27615U 02059C   03015.02453901  .09740018  44255-1  49978-3 0 90721
    2 27615  62.8110 144.5950 0054584 112.9837 247.5929 16.34146205  3425
    Cosmos 2393 Pl   3.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d    6       195 x 137 km
    1 27615U 02059C   03015.26888341  .15118606  12529+0  37436-3 0 90729
    2 27615  62.8091 143.5829 0044451 113.0324 247.4369 16.39991479  3469
    Cosmos 2393 Pl   3.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d    6       151 x 118 km
    1 27615U 02059C   03015.51202287  .47011238  15353+1  30911-3 0 90724
    2 27615  62.8057 142.5642 0024606 113.0816 247.1777 16.51867572  3504
    Cosmos 2393 Pl   3.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d    6       120 x 104 km
    1 27615U 02059C   03015.57240270 1.29492006  13694+2  34194-3 0 90725
    2 27615  62.8037 142.3074 0011709 113.0941 247.0294 16.60464182  3512
    
    Note: Although the uncertainty is still several orbits, I estimate that
    this will decay while southbound on the penultimate predicted orbit
    above, possibly in daylight in the vicinity of Gibraltar.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Tue Jan 14 2003 - 15:59:12 EST