KeyHoles: latest elements and manoeuvre alert

From: Ted Molczan (molczan@rogers.com)
Date: Wed Jan 01 2003 - 14:58:40 EST

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    I have derived the following from Greg Roberts' recent observations:
    
    For arc 2002 Dec 19 - 2003 Jan 01 UTC:
    
    USA 116         15.0  3.0  0.0  4.7 v
    1 23728U 95066A   03001.03911374  .00005100  00000-0  27649-3 0    00
    2 23728  97.9371 121.8583 0302814  36.5799 325.5681 14.82950176    08
    
    For arc 2002 Dec 18 - 31 UTC:
    
    USA 129         15.0  3.0  0.0  5.3 v
    1 24680U 96072A   02365.90131724  .00035161  00000-0  39527-3 0    05
    2 24680  97.8525  66.4118 0495058 194.5565 164.0948 14.83147731    01
    
    For arc 2002 Dec 18 - 31 UTC:
    
    USA 161         15.0  4.0  0.0  5.4 v
    1 26934U 01044A   02365.99644307  .00005214  00000-0  28106-3 0    06
    2 26934  97.9061 115.6631 0308330  70.0280 293.3858 14.82178320    09
    
    All have WRMS error less than 0.01 deg
    
    KeyHole re-boost manoeuvres often occur near when their argument of perigee passes over the equator, i.e. argument of perigee = 0
    deg or 180 deg.
    
    On 2003 Jan 05, USA 129's argument of perigee will cross the equator. Also, its mean motion has grown to a value that is ripe for a
    manoeuvre. Here is its above elset, propagated to ascending node nearest to arg perigee = 180 deg on Jan 05:
    
    1 70000U          03005.35385446  .00035215  00000-0  39527-3 0    01
    2 70000  97.8525  70.8094 0493719 179.9580 180.1767 14.83460838    00
    
    The argument of perigee need not be exactly at the equator, so the re-boost could occur as early as Jan 04. 
    
    One or both of the other KeyHoles could manoeuvre at about the same time as USA 129.
    
    The KeyHoles currently are in visibility windows at mid-Southern Hemisphere latitudes.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
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