I'll be updating the other decayers in a little while, but here is my
estimate on the EUVE decay. See my Decay Watch page for more details.
Incidentally, if (like one of my correspondents) you find that the
tabular data in these postings is poorly aligned, try using a fixed
pitch font, rather than a proportionally spaced font, in your email
client.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #21987 = 92- 31 A = EUVE
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 31 02:07 Jan 31 04:20 +-2h 28.0 N 30.1 E
SatEvo Jan 31 19:10 Jan 31 04:37 +-30m 8.5 N 110.9 E
Final elset:
EUVE 3.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 d 19 141 x 137 km
1 21987U 92031A 02031.10491576 .20498649 -80306-5 22899-3 0 7863
2 21987 28.4307 146.9653 0003162 265.8606 94.1491 16.50262797539002
Note: SpaceCom's post-decay wrap-up has not appeared (yet). Meantime,
its last prediction of decay near 28.0N/30.1E (SW of Cairo, Egypt)
is being quoted by the media and by NASA as if this were the confirmed
decay point. The final elset shows it running 10 sec early against
the prediction I had made nine hours before. My estimate for an elset
for the start of the final rev is:
EUVE 3.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 d 19 125 x 123 km
1 21987U 92031A 02031.16527715 .73850621 11644+2 32789-3 0 97866
2 21987 28.4298 146.4727 0002069 266.6635 93.3128 16.55860454539012
I compute a slightly later decay, over the South China Sea between
Malaysia and Vietnam. In the absence of any further elsets, the
uncertainty remains rather large.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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