Decay watch: 2002 January 30

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Jan 30 2002 - 12:48:11 EST

  • Next message: Harro Zimmer: "Decay Report Jan 30"

    Another summary of today's update to my Decay Watch page. Check there 
    for other predicted elsets.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #11556 = 79- 70 D = name Molniya 1-44 r2
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 30 05:44     Feb  2 04:38 +-2d        12.3 N    33.2 E
    SatEvo     Jan 30 17:10     Feb  2 12:15 +-1d
    
    Latest elset:
    Molniya 1-44 r2                                  1073 x 109 km
    1 11556U 79070D   02030.53392457  .11914745  75187-5  31116-3 0  5866
    2 11556  62.1402 237.2508 0691326 325.1581  30.8394 14.92226007188315
    
    Note: This is sunlit all around its orbit.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #21987 = 92- 31 A = EUVE
    NASA's Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer observatory satellite
    launched on June 7, 1992. Its mission was ended on Jan. 31, 2001.
    (Diameter : 3.0 m   Length : 4.5 m   Mass : 3275 kg)
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 30 15:58     Jan 31 03:30 +-7h        22.4 S   166.0 W
    SatEvo     Jan 30 17:20     Jan 31 05:05 +-5h        28.3 S   142.3 W
    
    Latest elset:
    EUVE             3.0  0.0  0.0  6.0 d   19       172 x 168 km
    1 21987U 92031A   02030.61914901  .10934352 -78116-5  91268-3 0  7823
    2 21987  28.4230 150.8923 0002763  19.0458 341.0300 16.38486436538928
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    EUVE             3.0  0.0  0.0  6.0 d   19       164 x 161 km
    1 21987U 92031A   02030.80169785  .09115553  55234-1  54558-3 0 97829
    2 21987  28.4225 149.4300 0002462  21.4296 338.5806 16.41179320538958
    EUVE             3.0  0.0  0.0  6.0 d   19       148 x 146 km
    1 21987U 92031A   02031.04449119  .17654978  25825+0  37703-3 0 97820
    2 21987  28.4215 147.4735 0001854  24.6190 335.3897 16.47151156538991
    EUVE             3.0  0.0  0.0  6.0 d   19       141 x 139 km
    1 21987U 92031A   02031.10502351  .24557921  55295+0  31353-3 0 97822
    2 21987  28.4211 146.9826 0001604  25.4192 334.5884 16.49652156539004
    EUVE             3.0  0.0  0.0  6.0 d   19       131 x 129 km
    1 21987U 92031A   02031.16544235  .45654883  23170+1  29030-3 0 97820
    2 21987  28.4205 146.4904 0001224  26.2215 333.7844 16.53581686539014
    
    Note: This is an object for which the latest elsets are showing
    a sharply increased drag. My current estimate is for this to decay
    over the Pacific but the low-inclination circular orbit makes this
    very hard to call.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #24736 = 96- 10 F = Raduga 33 aux motor
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 29 19:56     Feb  2 19:15 +-2d        26.1 S   100.7 W
    SatEvo     Jan 30 17:30     Feb  3 04:28 +-1.1d
    
    Latest elset:
    Raduga 33 aux motor                              1509 x 201 km
    1 24736U 96010F   02030.61701762  .14020528  77639-5  41746-1 0  3102
    2 24736  47.6166 129.0203 0904347  82.0730  50.9297 14.11390633 64247
    
    Note: This enters eclipse while northbound near 29 deg S at a height
    of ~1100 km in the evening sky. Eclipse exit occurs southbound near
    48 deg N and not long after perigee before dawn.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #24947 = 97- 51 D = Iridium 27 tum
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 30 09:05     Feb  1 02:18 +-1d        21.0 N    96.0 W
    SatEvo     Jan 30 17:00     Feb  1 09:39 +-12h
    
    Latest elset:
    Iridium 27 tum   4.0  1.8  0.0  6.5 d  7.6       219 x 216 km
    1 24947U 97051D   02030.55564464  .07218266 -13847-5  36513-2 0  1973
    2 24947  86.5754  67.8355 0002272 254.9193 105.1813 16.20731003242711
    
    Note: The latest elset shows a very sharp increase in drag but this
    is not supported by the residuals between it and predictions from
    earlier elsets.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25988 = 99- 65 J = Orbcomm 30 Pegasus r2
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 29 15:47     Feb  1 15:52 +-2d        17.3 S   102.3 E
    SatEvo     Jan 30 17:35     Feb  1 23:57 +-18h
    
    Latest elset:
    Orb 30 Peg r2    1.3  1.0  0.0  7.5 d  1.0       250 x 204 km
    1 25988U 99065J   02030.47818287  .03040538  73669-5  16355-2 0  6900
    2 25988  40.9452 284.5018 0035175 318.3251  51.3032 16.17199810119907
    
    Note: Eclipse entry occurs southbound near 34 deg N in the evening. It
    leaves eclipse near southern apex (41 deg S) in the morning sky.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26889 = 01- 35 B = SimpleSat 1
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 30 09:54     Jan 30 06:34 +-44m       20.4 N   156.9 E
    SatEvo     Jan 30 16:35     Jan 30 06:28 +-30m       12.9 N   150.7 E
    
    Final elset:
    SimpleSat 1      1.0  0.0  0.0  7.5 d 0.23       135 x 131 km
    1 26889U 01035B   02030.20633692  .24945201  12764-4  18682-3 0  2798
    2 26889  51.6168   7.0504 0003257 285.4944  74.7799 16.52557156 27163
    
    Note: The final elset has this 8 sec early against my final prediction.
    I calculate that this may have decayed soon after the northbound
    equator crossing at the end of the orbit given by this final elset.
    This puts it northbound over the western Pacific following a pass
    across Australia from Perth at 06:14 UTC to Darwin at 06:20.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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