With decay notices being issued by SpaceCom for three more decayers, i
had too little time to provide all the info I would have liked in the
latest update to my Decay Watch page. Here is a summary; see the page
for the missing predicted elsets.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #11556 = 79- 70 D = name Molniya 1-44 r2
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 29 00:12 Feb 2 00:38 +-2d 2.2 S 91.5 W
SatEvo Jan 29 22:00 Feb 2 10:39 +-1.3d
Latest elset:
Molniya 1-44 r2 1210 x 115 km
1 11556U 79070D 02029.53681517 .12812142 72444-5 46247-3 0 5821
2 11556 62.1458 240.6076 0777505 325.1318 117.1632 14.69670159188168
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #21987 = 92- 31 A = EUVE
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 29 08:29 Jan 31 07:57 +-1d 25.9 S 139.9 E
SatEvo Jan 29 21:15 Jan 31 05:49 +-12h
Latest elset:
EUVE 3.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 d 19 199 x 196 km
1 21987U 92031A 02029.51908166 .02695817 -76437-5 65015-3 0 7765
2 21987 28.4221 159.6406 0002795 56.8434 303.2881 16.28238399538745
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #24736 = 96- 10 F = Raduga 33 aux motor
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 29 19:56 Feb 2 19:15 +-2d 26.1 S 100.7 W
SatEvo Jan 29 22:20 Feb 3 02:46 +-1.4d
Latest elset:
Raduga 33 aux motor 1671 x 202 km
1 24736U 96010F 02029.73597803 .13065107 74831-5 43285-1 0 3070
2 24736 47.6184 132.8221 1004247 78.1140 293.0127 13.87739834 64122
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #24947 = 97- 51 D = Iridium 27 tum
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 29 10:38 Feb 1 09:39 +-2d 16.2 N 152.9 E
SatEvo Jan 29 21:20 Feb 1 11:00 +-1d
Latest elset:
Iridium 27 tum 4.0 1.8 0.0 6.5 d 7.6 242 x 239 km
1 24947U 97051D 02029.06958054 .01996858 38014-2 19784-2 0 1894
2 24947 86.5897 68.6268 0001797 283.1700 76.8996 16.12323108242473
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #25988 = 99- 65 J = Orbcomm 30 Pegasus r2
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 29 15:47 Feb 1 15:52 +-2d 17.3 S 102.3 E
SatEvo Jan 29 22:15 Feb 2 04:42 +-1.2
Latest elset:
Orb 30 Peg r2 1.3 1.0 0.0 7.5 d 1.0 272 x 216 km
1 25988U 99065J 02029.17711984 .01978997 72292-5 16123-2 0 6856
2 25988 40.9444 293.1321 0042239 313.1345 46.5731 16.11020056119694
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #26872 = 01- 31 B = GOES 12 Atlas 2a rocket
Final decay analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 29 10:20 Jan 29 03:44 +-5h 6.8 S 103.6 W
SatEvo Jan 29 21:40 Jan 29 04:07 +-3h 18.0 N 30.1 W
Final elset:
GOES 12 Atlas 2a r 1445 x 104 km
1 26872U 01031B 02028.82309028 .99999999 -78676-5 39852-2 0 1357
2 26872 20.1576 100.6446 0937395 34.0693 303.5680 14.35276062 5208
Note: My final predicted evolution for this ends:
GOES 12 Atlas 2a r 769 x 105 km
1 26872U 01031B 02029.09753289 3.25802814 79196+1 53103-2 0 91356
2 26872 20.1403 98.7745 0487289 37.4624 325.8374 15.43128232 5245
GOES 12 Atlas 2a r 449 x 100 km
1 26872U 01031B 02029.16088912 7.03441413 50000+2 65528-2 0 91350
2 26872 20.1334 98.2843 0262559 38.3517 323.4865 15.99920174 5250
though there is some uncertainty about the perigee height - it may well
have been lower. I think that re-entry was most likely after perigee
on the first of these two revs, northbound over the Atlantic to the
west of Mauritania after a passage across northern South America.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #26889 = 01- 35 B = SimpleSat 1
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 29 19:05 Jan 30 07:34 +-11h 51.2 S 45.5 E
SatEvo Jan 29 21:50 Jan 30 07:03 +-12h 14.8 N 60.6 W
Latest elset:
SimpleSat 1 1.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 d 0.23 175 x 172 km
1 26889U 01035B 02029.53705185 .06094557 12350-4 61780-3 0 2752
2 26889 51.6182 10.8437 0001824 10.2557 349.3617 16.37183318 27054
SatEvo prediction:
<..ends>
SimpleSat 1 1.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 d 0.23 136 x 135 km
1 26889U 01035B 02030.20637735 .30074771 86866+0 27051-3 0 92756
2 26889 51.6143 7.0456 0001243 13.0931 346.9101 16.51521258 27160
SimpleSat 1 1.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 d 0.23 121 x 119 km
1 26889U 01035B 02030.26679586 .90870587 86916+1 33966-3 0 92756
2 26889 51.6132 6.6971 0000894 13.3535 346.6487 16.57381492 27174
Note: I show this decaying on the last of these orbits possible
southbound over the western Caribbean following a pass across N
America from north of Vancouver at 06:48 to Charlotte, N Carolina,
at 06:56.
_____________________________________________________________________
Phew :)
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Tue Jan 29 2002 - 17:34:43 EST