Decay watch: 2002 January 27

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sun Jan 27 2002 - 13:38:06 EST

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    The current updates from my Decay Watch page where you will also find 
    predicted elsets. All the decays have shifted earlier.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #21987 = 92- 31 A = EUVE
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    
    SpaceCom   Jan 27 15:22     Jan 31 02:51 +-2d        27.8 N    50.9 W
    SatEvo     Jan 27 18:00     Jan 31 11:33 +-1.2d
    
    Latest elset:
    EUVE             3.0  0.0  0.0  6.0 d   19       223 x 218 km
    1 21987U 92031A   02027.49083638  .01589051  22451-2  82881-3 0  7650
    2 21987  28.4199 175.5254 0003822  29.4788 330.6392 16.19592658538413
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #22013 = 92- 38 B = Sampex Scout rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 27 14:54     Jan 28 03:02 +-8h        30.3 S   124.8 W
    SatEvo     Jan 27 18:15     Jan 28 01:28 +-3h        25.0 S   103.5 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Sampex r         3.0  0.0  0.0  6.0 d 0.89       187 x 182 km
    1 22013U 92038B   02027.57910610  .08819414 -96573-6  15279-2 0   584
    2 22013  81.6040  52.1672 0004085 141.9786 218.1688 16.32976208524431
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    <...>
    Sampex r         3.0  0.0  0.0  6.0 d 0.89       156 x 152 km
    1 22013U 92038B   02027.94570597  .29485964  65187+0  10471-2 0 90580
    2 22013  81.6002  51.6814 0002537 140.4930 219.5255 16.44456481524496
    Sampex r         3.0  0.0  0.0  6.0 d 0.89       143 x 140 km
    1 22013U 92038B   02028.00647910  .54051986  25241+1  77525-3 0 90585
    2 22013  81.5988  51.5999 0001945 140.2436 219.7706 16.49185492524503
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running 15 sec early against
    yesterday's prediction. I have it decaying northbound over the SE
    Pacific on the last of these predicted revs.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #24947 = 97- 51 D = Iridium 27 tum
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   (none posted yet)
    SatEvo     Jan 27 18:30     Feb  1 08:40 +-1.5d
    
    Latest elset:
    Iridium 27 tum   4.0  1.8  0.0  6.5 d  7.6       257 x 256 km
    1 24947U 97051D   02027.51493404  .01576705  16675-2  21804-2 0  1828
    2 24947  86.5831  69.4281 0000437 244.3438 115.7752 16.06524733242228
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26872 = 01- 31 B = GOES 12 Atlas 2a rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 25 23:41     Jan 28 12:00 +-2d        13.9 N   162.6 W
    SatEvo     Jan 27 10:00     Jan 29 07:38 +-18h
    
    Latest elset:
    GOES 12 Atlas 2a r                               3660 x 109 km
    1 26872U 01031B   02026.93791084  .02019733 -28057-4  10595-3 0  1156
    2 26872  20.1823 110.1820 2149022  15.6635 350.0952 11.56006433  4975
    
    Note: Recent elsets are of poor quality, with spurious drag
    values (such as that in the latest one) and inconsistent perigee
    heights.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26889 = 01- 35 B = SimpleSat 1
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 27 06:38     Jan 30 05:15 +-2d        46.0 N   145.2 W
    SatEvo     Jan 27 18:25     Jan 30 06:04 +-20h
    
    Latest elset:
    SimpleSat 1      1.0  0.0  0.0  7.5 d 0.23       213 x 209 km
    1 26889U 01035B   02027.39004364  .02032106  11949-4  78992-3 0  2636
    2 26889  51.6187  22.7951 0002668   0.8190 359.2823 16.23207325 26695
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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