Decay watch: 2002 January 14

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Mon Jan 14 2002 - 14:53:19 EST

  • Next message: Harro Zimmer: "Re: Decay Report Jan 13"

     From my updated Decay Watch page:
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #11932 = 80- 69 A = Cosmos 1206
    Notice prepared: 2002 Jan 14 19:15 UTC
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 13 19:59     Jan 13 19:38 +-7m        69.0 S   107.0 E
    SatEvo     Jan 14 19:15     Jan 13 19:21 +-15m       32.1 S    33.3 W
    
    Final elset:
    Cosmos 1206      5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   16       128 x 117 km
    1 11932U 80069A   02013.78924492  .37248599 -13537-5  17338-3 0  5768
    2 11932  81.1303 184.4843 0008650 316.8752 153.7629 16.56422408174910
    
    Note: The penultimate elset showed this running 3.2 sec late against
    the prediction I posted yesterday. I put the decay over the SW Atlantic,
    
    following the southbound equator crossing on the orbit given by the
    final posted elset.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #13432 = 82- 83 A = Molniya 3-19
    
    Notice prepared: 2002 Jan 14 19:30 UTC
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 13 21:34     Jan 13 20:42 +-35m       44.2 S   101.4 W
    SatEvo     Jan 14 19:30     Jan 13 20:41 +-10m       39.9 S    97.2 W
    
    Final elset:
    Molniya 3-19                                     512 x 77 km
    1 13432U 82083A   02013.80699161  .99999999  95136-5  13862-2 0  6989
    2 13432  62.2412 352.3312 0325462 284.4340  72.3717 15.92788755 69906
    
    Note: I show this decaying northbound over the SE Pacific on a track
    that would have carried it a little to the N of Lima, Peru, at 20:49 
    UTC.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #14319 = 83- 90 D = Molniya 3-21 r2
    
    Notice prepared: 2002 Jan 14 19:40 UTC
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 13 16:44     Jan 15 15:07 +-1d        48.9 N   112.9 E
    SatEvo     Jan 14 19:40     Jan 16 07:29 +-13h
    
    Latest elset:
    Molniya 3-21 r2                                  1084 x 92 km
    1 14319U 83090D   02014.57724487  .23417150  72672-5  29018-3 0  4911
    2 14319  62.0405 314.8968 0712226 285.9172  67.2476 14.93159599138784
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    
    Note: SatEvo continues to give a much later decay than does SpaceCom.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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