Decay watch: 2002 January 13

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sun Jan 13 2002 - 12:29:34 EST

  • Next message: Daniel Deak: "Disco balls TLE, Jan. 13"

    Another major update to my Decay Watch page, of which the following is 
    just a summery:
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #11056 = 78- 94 B = Cosmos 1043 rocket
    
    Notice prepared: 2002 Jan 13 16:35 UTC
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   (no prediction posted)
    SatEvo     Jan 13 16:35     Jan 19 16:36 +-1.9d
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1043 r    3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v  8.6       238 x 229 km
    1 11056U 78094B   02013.53360564  .01112881  84489-3  88059-3 0  7831
    2 11056  81.1557 359.8746 0006869 188.9508 171.1307 16.14746035278927
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #11932 = 80- 69 A = Cosmos 1206
    
    Notice prepared: 2002 Jan 13 16:40 UTC
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 13 13:41     Jan 13 19:05 +-4h        46.3 N    43.4 W
    SatEvo     Jan 13 16:40     Jan 13 18:39 +-90m       38.1 N   158.7 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1206      5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   16       162 x 153 km
    1 11932U 80069A   02013.52778214  .10581118 -95920-6  44322-3 0  5734
    2 11932  81.1253 184.8677 0006450 261.7458  98.3598 16.43229099174871
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Cosmos 1206      5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   16       149 x 142 km
    1 11932U 80069A   02013.64938998  .22325853  46172+0  40117-3 0 95733
    2 11932  81.1239 184.6956 0005170 261.2545  98.6870 16.47623700174892
    Cosmos 1206      5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   16       139 x 134 km
    1 11932U 80069A   02013.71006935  .36406014  14830+1  37453-3 0 95738
    2 11932  81.1228 184.6092 0004153 261.0080  98.9450 16.51026107174905
    
    Note: I now show this decaying northbound to the E of Japan following
    the end of the final SatEvo-predicted rev above.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #13432 = 82- 83 A = Molniya 3-19
    
    Notice prepared: 2002 Jan 13 16:55 UTC
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 13 14:48     Jan 13 20:38 +-4h        53.1 S   114.0 W
    SatEvo     Jan 13 16:55     Jan 13 20:39 +-100m      44.0 S   101.1 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Molniya 3-19                                     1088 x 73 km
    1 13432U 82083A   02013.61081183  .99999999  89088-5  66561-3 0  6947
    2 13432  62.2794 353.0873 0729018 280.3100  72.0185 14.95677578 69877
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Molniya 3-19                                     930 x 75 km
    1 13432U 82083A   02013.67721866 2.01990069  18912+1  88635-3 0 96887
    2 13432  62.2511 352.8879 0621545 280.5638  72.4982 15.21191797 69885
    Molniya 3-19                                     757 x 74 km
    1 13432U 82083A   02013.74258575 2.51799504  33712+1  92223-3 0 96886
    2 13432  62.2424 352.6488 0502912 280.5855  73.7909 15.50512436 69892
    Molniya 3-19                                     539 x 72 km
    1 13432U 82083A   02013.80664077 3.66533483  11171+2  10061-2 0 96885
    2 13432  62.2271 352.4029 0349385 280.6079  75.4765 15.88788815 69901
    
    Note: I put this decay a little beyond perigee on the last of these
    SatEvo-predicted orbits. This would place it northbound over the SE
    Pacific, heading towards Lima, Peru, at 20:48 UTC.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #14319 = 83- 90 D = Molniya 3-21 r2
    
    Notice prepared: 2002 Jan 13 17:05 UTC
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 12 11:40     Jan 15 10:36 +-2d        32.1 S   121.8 W
    SatEvo     Jan 13 17:05     Jan 16 07:34 +-20h
    
    Latest elset:
    Molniya 3-21 r2                                  1334 x 94 km
    1 14319U 83090D   02013.62632309  .22731772  66519-5  34308-3 0  4859
    2 14319  62.0519 318.0962 0874406 285.6650  65.5136 14.53668224138642
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23733 = 95- 67 D = Telecom 2C Spelda
    
    Notice prepared: 2002 Jan 13 17:20 UTC
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 13 11:53     Jan 13 10:10 +-1h         3.8 N   176.7 E
    SatEvo     Jan 13 17:20     Jan 13 10:22 +-45m        3.8 S   124.1 W
    
    Final elset:
    Telecom 2C Spelda                                316 x 127 km
    1 23733U 95067D   02013.33502510  .69021733 -33935-4  18623-2 0  8530
    2 23733   7.1828 293.7860 0143509  16.9566 343.4634 16.19270471 88524
    
    Note: I put the decay over the E Pacific on the following predicted
    orbit:
    Telecom 2C Spelda                                239 x 120 km
    1 23733U 95067D   02013.39629320 1.68436322  11275+2  22797-2 0 98534
    2 23733   7.1821 293.2420 0090914  18.0318 342.2887 16.34971038 88535
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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