Another major update to my Decay Watch page, of which the following is
just a summery:
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #11056 = 78- 94 B = Cosmos 1043 rocket
Notice prepared: 2002 Jan 13 16:35 UTC
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom (no prediction posted)
SatEvo Jan 13 16:35 Jan 19 16:36 +-1.9d
Latest elset:
Cosmos 1043 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 8.6 238 x 229 km
1 11056U 78094B 02013.53360564 .01112881 84489-3 88059-3 0 7831
2 11056 81.1557 359.8746 0006869 188.9508 171.1307 16.14746035278927
SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #11932 = 80- 69 A = Cosmos 1206
Notice prepared: 2002 Jan 13 16:40 UTC
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 13 13:41 Jan 13 19:05 +-4h 46.3 N 43.4 W
SatEvo Jan 13 16:40 Jan 13 18:39 +-90m 38.1 N 158.7 E
Latest elset:
Cosmos 1206 5.0 1.5 0.0 5.4 v 16 162 x 153 km
1 11932U 80069A 02013.52778214 .10581118 -95920-6 44322-3 0 5734
2 11932 81.1253 184.8677 0006450 261.7458 98.3598 16.43229099174871
SatEvo prediction:
Cosmos 1206 5.0 1.5 0.0 5.4 v 16 149 x 142 km
1 11932U 80069A 02013.64938998 .22325853 46172+0 40117-3 0 95733
2 11932 81.1239 184.6956 0005170 261.2545 98.6870 16.47623700174892
Cosmos 1206 5.0 1.5 0.0 5.4 v 16 139 x 134 km
1 11932U 80069A 02013.71006935 .36406014 14830+1 37453-3 0 95738
2 11932 81.1228 184.6092 0004153 261.0080 98.9450 16.51026107174905
Note: I now show this decaying northbound to the E of Japan following
the end of the final SatEvo-predicted rev above.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #13432 = 82- 83 A = Molniya 3-19
Notice prepared: 2002 Jan 13 16:55 UTC
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 13 14:48 Jan 13 20:38 +-4h 53.1 S 114.0 W
SatEvo Jan 13 16:55 Jan 13 20:39 +-100m 44.0 S 101.1 W
Latest elset:
Molniya 3-19 1088 x 73 km
1 13432U 82083A 02013.61081183 .99999999 89088-5 66561-3 0 6947
2 13432 62.2794 353.0873 0729018 280.3100 72.0185 14.95677578 69877
SatEvo prediction:
Molniya 3-19 930 x 75 km
1 13432U 82083A 02013.67721866 2.01990069 18912+1 88635-3 0 96887
2 13432 62.2511 352.8879 0621545 280.5638 72.4982 15.21191797 69885
Molniya 3-19 757 x 74 km
1 13432U 82083A 02013.74258575 2.51799504 33712+1 92223-3 0 96886
2 13432 62.2424 352.6488 0502912 280.5855 73.7909 15.50512436 69892
Molniya 3-19 539 x 72 km
1 13432U 82083A 02013.80664077 3.66533483 11171+2 10061-2 0 96885
2 13432 62.2271 352.4029 0349385 280.6079 75.4765 15.88788815 69901
Note: I put this decay a little beyond perigee on the last of these
SatEvo-predicted orbits. This would place it northbound over the SE
Pacific, heading towards Lima, Peru, at 20:48 UTC.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #14319 = 83- 90 D = Molniya 3-21 r2
Notice prepared: 2002 Jan 13 17:05 UTC
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 12 11:40 Jan 15 10:36 +-2d 32.1 S 121.8 W
SatEvo Jan 13 17:05 Jan 16 07:34 +-20h
Latest elset:
Molniya 3-21 r2 1334 x 94 km
1 14319U 83090D 02013.62632309 .22731772 66519-5 34308-3 0 4859
2 14319 62.0519 318.0962 0874406 285.6650 65.5136 14.53668224138642
SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #23733 = 95- 67 D = Telecom 2C Spelda
Notice prepared: 2002 Jan 13 17:20 UTC
Final decay analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 13 11:53 Jan 13 10:10 +-1h 3.8 N 176.7 E
SatEvo Jan 13 17:20 Jan 13 10:22 +-45m 3.8 S 124.1 W
Final elset:
Telecom 2C Spelda 316 x 127 km
1 23733U 95067D 02013.33502510 .69021733 -33935-4 18623-2 0 8530
2 23733 7.1828 293.7860 0143509 16.9566 343.4634 16.19270471 88524
Note: I put the decay over the E Pacific on the following predicted
orbit:
Telecom 2C Spelda 239 x 120 km
1 23733U 95067D 02013.39629320 1.68436322 11275+2 22797-2 0 98534
2 23733 7.1821 293.2420 0090914 18.0318 342.2887 16.34971038 88535
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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