Lifted from my Decay Watch page...
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #14520 = 83-114 D = Molniya 1-59 r2
Final decay analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 25 04:10 Jan 24 23:09 +-12m 26.6 N 136.3 E
SatEvo Jan 25 18:00 Jan 23 23:45 +-15m 52.0 S 80.5 W
Final elset:
Molniya 1-59 r2 500 x 101 km
1 14520U 83114D 01024.93922210 .99999999 82975-5 33192-2 0 7226
2 14520 62.3262 82.3386 0298827 271.1278 93.8048 15.90598720129504
Note: This had been lost between January 15 and 23. Indeed, my latest
SatEvo decay list gave January 15 as a possible decay date even
though the elsets on that date indicated a mean motion of 2.66 revs/day.
I suspect that this decayed near perigee on the above orbit, near the
S tip of S America. SpaceCom appear convinced that it decayed much
closer to its apogee point, which I think is unlikely. A more realistic
SatEvo-evolved orbit for this rev may be:
Molniya 1-59 r2 536 x 75 km
1 14520U 83114D 01024.93776396 4.05253916 12591+2 13424-2 0 97218
2 14520 62.2687 82.3533 0344737 268.7264 87.3227 15.88820403129507
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Object: #26689 = 01- 3 B = Progress M1-5 Soyuz-U r
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 25 15:52 Jan 25 22:14 +-4h 11.6 S 77.5 W
SatEvo Jan 25 19:00 Jan 25 22:15 +-90m 27.5 S 64.0 W
Latest elset:
Progress M1-5 Soyuz r 157 x 148 km
1 26689U 01003B 01025.74303241 .13865441 12584-4 37837-3 0 175
2 26689 51.6253 191.9516 0007353 69.3431 132.0766 16.45108396 256
SatEvo prediction:
Progress M1-5 Soyuz r 144 x 137 km
1 26689U 01003B 01025.83043514 .32526889 10204+1 38776-3 0 90175
2 26689 51.6246 191.4524 0005849 69.7157 290.3471 16.49559237 269
Progress M1-5 Soyuz r 129 x 124 km
1 26689U 01003B 01025.89092062 .63916924 51363+1 32679-3 0 90177
2 26689 51.6231 191.1045 0003901 69.9755 290.0665 16.55059565 270
Note: This enters eclipse while southbound near 51 deg S in the evening
and leaves eclipse northbound near 17 deg N before dawn. I show it
decaying southbound over northern Argentina on the last of my SatEvo-
predicted orbits.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Jan 25 2001 - 11:10:40 PST