Decay watch: 2001 Jan 25

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu Jan 25 2001 - 11:07:42 PST

  • Next message: Mark Hanning-Lee: "California: 26689 Progress M1-5 Soyuz r pass near-decay"

    Lifted from my Decay Watch page...
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #14520 = 83-114 D = Molniya 1-59 r2
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 25 04:10     Jan 24 23:09 +-12m       26.6 N   136.3 E
    SatEvo     Jan 25 18:00     Jan 23 23:45 +-15m       52.0 S    80.5 W
    
    Final elset:
    Molniya 1-59 r2                                  500 x 101 km
    1 14520U 83114D   01024.93922210  .99999999  82975-5  33192-2 0  7226
    2 14520  62.3262  82.3386 0298827 271.1278  93.8048 15.90598720129504
    
    Note: This had been lost between January 15 and 23. Indeed, my latest 
    SatEvo decay list gave January 15 as a possible decay date even 
    though the elsets on that date indicated a mean motion of 2.66 revs/day. 
    I suspect that this decayed near perigee on the above orbit, near the
    S tip of S America. SpaceCom appear convinced that it decayed much
    closer to its apogee point, which I think is unlikely. A more realistic
    SatEvo-evolved orbit for this rev may be:
    Molniya 1-59 r2                                  536 x 75 km
    1 14520U 83114D   01024.93776396 4.05253916  12591+2  13424-2 0 97218
    2 14520  62.2687  82.3533 0344737 268.7264  87.3227 15.88820403129507
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26689 = 01-  3 B = Progress M1-5 Soyuz-U r
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 25 15:52     Jan 25 22:14 +-4h        11.6 S    77.5 W
    SatEvo     Jan 25 19:00     Jan 25 22:15 +-90m       27.5 S    64.0 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Progress M1-5 Soyuz r                            157 x 148 km
    1 26689U 01003B   01025.74303241  .13865441  12584-4  37837-3 0   175
    2 26689  51.6253 191.9516 0007353  69.3431 132.0766 16.45108396   256
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Progress M1-5 Soyuz r                            144 x 137 km
    1 26689U 01003B   01025.83043514  .32526889  10204+1  38776-3 0 90175
    2 26689  51.6246 191.4524 0005849  69.7157 290.3471 16.49559237   269
    Progress M1-5 Soyuz r                            129 x 124 km
    1 26689U 01003B   01025.89092062  .63916924  51363+1  32679-3 0 90177
    2 26689  51.6231 191.1045 0003901  69.9755 290.0665 16.55059565   270
    
    Note: This enters eclipse while southbound near 51 deg S in the evening
    and leaves eclipse northbound near 17 deg N before dawn. I show it 
    decaying southbound over northern Argentina on the last of my SatEvo-
    predicted orbits.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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