SatEvo decay list #111 (issued 2001 January 21) This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe. Information about SeeSat-L is available at http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by 2001 March 15, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date. This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo page at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle and all newly launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file, satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for more than 8,400 satellites. This is available in zipped form from the same address. I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ This includes my predicted elsets for these objects. # Designation Name ------- Decay ------- Predicted Actual? 2000 24089 94- 29 EL STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 29.1 26051 93- 9 D OXP 1 Pegasus deb December 29? Note 2 26252 99- 57 EN CBERS LM4 deb December 29.5 24154 94- 29 HD STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 29.9 25529 98- 66 C Iridium 85 December 30.86 24181 94- 29 JG STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 31.5 2001 25553 64- 49 H Cosmos 41 deb January 1 4584 70- 85 B Meteor 1-6 r January 1.52 24458 94- 29 TF STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 1.9 23854 96- 25 B Cosmos 2332 r January 4.91 22925 93- 72 E Gorizont 29 aux mot January 6.05 22465 92- 93 FE C 2227 Zenit deb January 6.3 25224 87- 68 BB Metr 2-16 Tsyklon deb January 9.8 Note 1 26318 99- 57 HB CBERS LM4 deb January 10.8 26458 99- 57 LD CBERS LM4 deb January 11.0 16243 85-105 D Cosmos 1701 r January 11.64 4647 70- 25 AF Nimbus 4 ThAg deb January 11.7 12196 78- 26 AM Landsat 3 Delta 1 deb January 12.1 24745 97- 10 B Zeya r January 12.32 22659 93- 32 C GPS 2-20 r2 January 12.81 26421 99- 57 JS CBERS LM4 deb January 13.2 16110 85- 90 A Cosmos 1689 January 14.37 26325 99- 57 HJ CBERS LM4 deb January 15.1 14520 83-114 D Molniya 1-59 r2 January 15? Note 1 26223 99- 57 DM CBERS LM4 deb January 16.5 Note 1 15758 68- 91 CZ Cosmos 249 deb January 20.1 Note 1 26665 01- 1 B Shenzhou 2 CZ-2F r January 20.48 26499 00- 31 E Express 3A aux motor January 21.05 2001 23982 94- 29 AC STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 21.3 22452 92- 93 ER C 2227 Zenit deb January 22 24455 95- 58 H C 2322 Zenit deb January 23 14915 78- 26 GQ Landsat 3 Delta 1 deb January 24 20456 77- 65 GD GMS 1 Dlt deb January 24 25576 65-109 G Transit 10 deb January 27 24176 94- 29 JB STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 28 23976 94- 29 W STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 29 24361 94- 29 PN STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 1 26263 99- 57 EZ CBERS LM4 deb February 1 25313 98- 24 C Nilesat Ariane 44P r February 3 25451 87- 68 BY Metr 2-16 Tsyklon deb February 4 25076 96- 49 H Fast Pegasus deb February 6 26649 99- 57 LF CBERS LM4 deb February 6 3560 68- 97 N Cosmos 252 deb February 8 26097 00- 4 N Picosat deb February 8 26663 99- 57 LV CBERS LM4 deb February 8 26303 86- 73 D NOAA 10 deb February 9 8432 72- 58 FM Landsat 1 Delta 1 deb February 12 26606 00- 71 B Navstar 49 Delta 2 r February 13 16939 86- 68 D Molniya 1-68 r2 February 14 26537 83- 44 FR Cosmos 1461 deb February 14 3687 68- 97 AE Cosmos 252 deb February 16 23419 94- 77 K Cosmos 2297 deb February 16 25314 98- 24 D Nilesat Ariane Spelda February 18 16125 85- 91 D Molniya 3-26 r2 February 20 25720 89-100 BR C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb February 21 26328 99- 57 HM CBERS LM4 deb February 22 16112 85- 91 A Molniya 3-26 February 23? 22986 94- 8 F Raduga 1-3 Proton deb February 24 12948 81- 53 EC Cosmos 1275 deb March 2 22521 93- 11 A Astro D March 4 22466 92- 93 FF Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb March 5 17152 86- 19 AF Spot 1 Ariane 1 deb March 6 26062 00- 4 B OCS March 6 26327 99- 57 HL CBERS LM4 deb March 8 4215 69- 82 CE OPS 1807 ThAg deb March 10 4620 70- 89 G Cosmos 374 deb March 10 24217 94- 29 KQ STEP-2 Pegasus deb March 10 23019 94- 14 A Koronas 1 March 11 14361 81- 53 HX Cosmos 1275 deb March 12 20094 89- 48 F Raduga 1-1 aux motor March 12 19733 88-115 D Molniya 1-74 r2 March 27 23029 94- 16 C GPS 2-24 r2 March 27 23133 94- 35 B UHF F/O 3 r March 28 15957 85- 70 E Raduga 16 aux motor April 16609 86- 17 A Mir April Note 3 22233 92- 79 C GPS 2-16 r2 April 25013 97- 63 A STEP M4 April 5143 71- 31 B Meteor 1-8 r May 11458 79- 67 B Cosmos 1116 r May 25107 97- 82 D Iridium 48 May 11252 79- 5 B Meteor 1-29 r June Notes 1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay. 2. No recent elsets. 3. The estimate for #16609, Mir, assumes a natural decay from its current orbit. In fact, there are plans to deorbit it in late-February. Alan -- Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ * ----------------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe' in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
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