SatEvo decay list #111

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sun Jan 21 2001 - 09:26:20 PST

  • Next message: Paul Gabriel: "obs 22 jan 01022.05"

    SatEvo decay list #111 (issued 2001 January 21)
    
    This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is
    posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the
    Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
    Information about SeeSat-L is available at
       http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    
    In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the
    published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days.
    Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their
    decay by 2001 March 15, although some larger and/or more interesting
    decayers are included beyond that date.
    
    This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo
    page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the
    Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for
    other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle and all newly 
    launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file, 
    satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for more than 8,400 satellites. 
    This is available in zipped form from the same address.
    
    I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger 
    decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    This includes my predicted elsets for these objects.
    
    
       #    Designation    Name               ------- Decay  -------
                                                Predicted   Actual?
    
                                                           2000
     24089   94- 29 EL  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             December 29.1
     26051   93-  9 D   OXP 1 Pegasus deb              December 29? Note 2
     26252   99- 57 EN  CBERS LM4 deb                  December 29.5
     24154   94- 29 HD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             December 29.9
     25529   98- 66 C   Iridium 85                     December 30.86
     24181   94- 29 JG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             December 31.5
                                                           2001
     25553   64- 49 H   Cosmos 41 deb                   January  1
      4584   70- 85 B   Meteor 1-6 r                    January  1.52
     24458   94- 29 TF  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              January  1.9
     23854   96- 25 B   Cosmos 2332 r                   January  4.91
     22925   93- 72 E   Gorizont 29 aux mot             January  6.05
     22465   92- 93 FE  C 2227 Zenit deb                January  6.3
     25224   87- 68 BB  Metr 2-16 Tsyklon deb           January  9.8 Note 1
     26318   99- 57 HB  CBERS LM4 deb                   January 10.8
     26458   99- 57 LD  CBERS LM4 deb                   January 11.0
     16243   85-105 D   Cosmos 1701 r                   January 11.64
      4647   70- 25 AF  Nimbus 4 ThAg deb               January 11.7
     12196   78- 26 AM  Landsat 3 Delta 1 deb           January 12.1
     24745   97- 10 B   Zeya r                          January 12.32
     22659   93- 32 C   GPS 2-20 r2                     January 12.81
     26421   99- 57 JS  CBERS LM4 deb                   January 13.2
     16110   85- 90 A   Cosmos 1689                     January 14.37
     26325   99- 57 HJ  CBERS LM4 deb                   January 15.1
     14520   83-114 D   Molniya 1-59 r2                 January 15?  Note 1
     26223   99- 57 DM  CBERS LM4 deb                   January 16.5 Note 1
     15758   68- 91 CZ  Cosmos 249 deb                  January 20.1 Note 1
     26665   01-  1 B   Shenzhou 2 CZ-2F r              January 20.48
     26499   00- 31 E   Express 3A aux motor            January 21.05
                                                  2001
     23982   94- 29 AC  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 21.3
     22452   92- 93 ER  C 2227 Zenit deb       January 22
     24455   95- 58 H   C 2322 Zenit deb       January 23
     14915   78- 26 GQ  Landsat 3 Delta 1 deb  January 24
     20456   77- 65 GD  GMS 1 Dlt deb          January 24
     25576   65-109 G   Transit 10 deb         January 27
     24176   94- 29 JB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 28
     23976   94- 29 W   STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 29
     24361   94- 29 PN  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February  1
     26263   99- 57 EZ  CBERS LM4 deb         February  1
     25313   98- 24 C   Nilesat Ariane 44P r  February  3
     25451   87- 68 BY  Metr 2-16 Tsyklon deb February  4
     25076   96- 49 H   Fast Pegasus deb      February  6
     26649   99- 57 LF  CBERS LM4 deb         February  6
      3560   68- 97 N   Cosmos 252 deb        February  8
     26097   00-  4 N   Picosat deb           February  8
     26663   99- 57 LV  CBERS LM4 deb         February  8
     26303   86- 73 D   NOAA 10 deb           February  9
      8432   72- 58 FM  Landsat 1 Delta 1 deb February 12
     26606   00- 71 B   Navstar 49 Delta 2 r  February 13
     16939   86- 68 D   Molniya 1-68 r2       February 14
     26537   83- 44 FR  Cosmos 1461 deb       February 14
      3687   68- 97 AE  Cosmos 252 deb        February 16
     23419   94- 77 K   Cosmos 2297 deb       February 16
     25314   98- 24 D   Nilesat Ariane Spelda February 18
     16125   85- 91 D   Molniya 3-26 r2       February 20
     25720   89-100 BR  C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb  February 21
     26328   99- 57 HM  CBERS LM4 deb         February 22
     16112   85- 91 A   Molniya 3-26          February 23?
     22986   94-  8 F   Raduga 1-3 Proton deb February 24
     12948   81- 53 EC  Cosmos 1275 deb          March  2
     22521   93- 11 A   Astro D                  March  4
     22466   92- 93 FF  Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb    March  5
     17152   86- 19 AF  Spot 1 Ariane 1 deb      March  6
     26062   00-  4 B   OCS                      March  6
     26327   99- 57 HL  CBERS LM4 deb            March  8
      4215   69- 82 CE  OPS 1807 ThAg deb        March 10
      4620   70- 89 G   Cosmos 374 deb           March 10
     24217   94- 29 KQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March 10
     23019   94- 14 A   Koronas 1                March 11
     14361   81- 53 HX  Cosmos 1275 deb          March 12
     20094   89- 48 F   Raduga 1-1 aux motor     March 12
     19733   88-115 D   Molniya 1-74 r2          March 27
     23029   94- 16 C   GPS 2-24 r2              March 27
     23133   94- 35 B   UHF F/O 3 r              March 28
     15957   85- 70 E   Raduga 16 aux motor      April
     16609   86- 17 A   Mir                      April    Note 3
     22233   92- 79 C   GPS 2-16 r2              April
     25013   97- 63 A   STEP M4                  April
      5143   71- 31 B   Meteor 1-8 r               May
     11458   79- 67 B   Cosmos 1116 r              May
     25107   97- 82 D   Iridium 48                 May
     11252   79-  5 B   Meteor 1-29 r             June
    
    
    Notes
    
    1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.
    
    2. No recent elsets.
    
    3. The estimate for #16609, Mir, assumes a natural decay from its
    current orbit. In fact, there are plans to deorbit it in late-February.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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