Decay watch: 2001 Jan 21

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sun Jan 21 2001 - 02:32:16 PST

  • Next message: Harro Zimmer: "2000-031E decayed"

    To conclude the story of our latest two decayers...
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26499 = 00- 31 E = Express 3A aux motor                             
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 21 02:28     Jan 21 01:18 +-55m       33.3 N   151.9 W
    SatEvo     Jan 21 10:05     Jan 21 01:05 +-30m       46.6 N   164.8 E
    
    Final elset:
    Express 3A aux motor                             669 x 88 km
    1 26499U 00031E   01020.99044510  .99999999  10146-4  21780-2 0  1618
    2 26499  46.5767 205.7140 0430056  84.1935  53.8595 15.63319478  5203
    
    Note: This probably decayed near perigee on the following orbit which
    would place it eastbound over the northern Pacific. A very approximate
    SatEvo-predicted elset for the start of that rev is:
    Express 3A aux motor                             381 x 78 km
    1 26499U 00031E   01021.02958780 8.77481756  50000+2  26049-2 0 91619
    2 26499  46.5589 205.4860 0229000  84.4196 278.1876 16.16382334  5213
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26665 = 01-  1 B = Shenzhou 2 Long March 2F rocket
    
    Notice prepared: 2001 Jan 21 10:25 UTC
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 20 11:33     Jan 20 10:19 +-1h        40.6 S    55.9 W
    SatEvo     Jan 20 09:20     Jan 20 11:35 +-45m       41.3 S   116.0 W
    
    Final elset:
    CZ-2 R/B        10.0  4.0  0.0  2.0 d   40       154 x 127 km
    1 26665U 01001B   01020.31893176  .21032225  89836-5  19674-3 0   580
    2 26665  42.5420 286.8287 0020640 229.3860 130.7186 16.49538073  1718
    
    Note: The final elset was the only one to appear during the final
    ~14 hours of this decayer. My analysis, that this decayed southbound
    over the SE Pacific, is unchanged although this is almost a full 
    orbit later than SpaceCom's estimate. My predicted elset for the
    final rev is:
    CZ-2 R/B        10.0  4.0  0.0  2.0 d   40       128 x 113 km
    1 26665U 01001B   01020.43973731  .50825293  29179+1  18292-3 0 90589
    2 26665  42.5402 286.0029 0011458 230.3466 129.5522 16.57158806  1738
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sun Jan 21 2001 - 02:34:38 PST