My Decay Watch page has been updated with a further prediction for
the Shenzhou 2 rocket and the first predictions for an aux motor from
the Express 3A launch.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #26499 = 00- 31 E = Express 3A aux motor
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 19 14:09 Jan 20 23:11 +-21h 43.3 N 156.6 W
SatEvo Jan 19 20:20 Jan 20 21:43 +-7h 43.6 N 123.8 W
Latest elset:
Express 3A aux motor 3157 x 97 km
1 26499U 00031E 01019.79182005 .79374653 26445-4 22664-2 0 1440
2 26499 46.6455 210.7055 1911347 76.1612 1.3277 12.12271224 5044
SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page
..(ends)
Express 3A aux motor 869 x 82 km
1 26499U 00031E 01020.82328785 3.78485780 72491+1 23601-2 0 91448
2 26499 46.5223 206.5124 0573868 80.3149 286.1176 15.30125946 5187
Express 3A aux motor 510 x 79 km
1 26499U 00031E 01020.88689716 6.97022727 35849+2 26879-2 0 91447
2 26499 46.5078 206.1569 0322565 80.6683 282.9642 15.92754367 5192
Note: I put decay near perigee on the last of these predicted orbits,
just after northern apex while it is eastbound in daylight over southern
Oregon. SpaceCom puts has it decaying one orbit later a little further
west.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #26665 = 01- 1 B = Shenzhou 2 Long March 2F rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 19 11:05 Jan 20 11:17 +-16h 7.8 N 168.8 E
SatEvo Jan 19 20:10 Jan 20 11:31 +-5h 36.5 S 133.8 W
Latest elset:
CZ-2 R/B 10.0 4.0 0.0 2.0 d 40 207 x 157 km
1 26665U 01001B 01019.46623701 .04123922 87091-5 42798-3 0 556
2 26665 42.5673 292.5284 0038493 206.4878 153.4952 16.33964464 1576
SatEvo prediction:
CZ-2 R/B 10.0 4.0 0.0 2.0 d 40 192 x 149 km
1 26665U 01001B 01019.83244874 .07023520 30199-1 36882-3 0 90552
2 26665 42.5663 290.0849 0032754 209.3279 150.4878 16.38365403 1630
CZ-2 R/B 10.0 4.0 0.0 2.0 d 40 181 x 144 km
1 26665U 01001B 01020.01516281 .09319173 56487-1 30128-3 0 90557
2 26665 42.5656 288.8595 0028818 210.7524 149.0785 16.41307187 1663
CZ-2 R/B 10.0 4.0 0.0 2.0 d 40 172 x 139 km
1 26665U 01001B 01020.13676734 .12100366 10411+0 26336-3 0 90557
2 26665 42.5649 288.0406 0025407 211.7042 148.1425 16.43880157 1683
CZ-2 R/B 10.0 4.0 0.0 2.0 d 40 160 x 133 km
1 26665U 01001B 01020.25815163 .17599778 22493+0 22986-3 0 90555
2 26665 42.5640 287.2198 0020946 212.6583 147.2119 16.47399274 1708
CZ-2 R/B 10.0 4.0 0.0 2.0 d 40 152 x 128 km
1 26665U 01001B 01020.31873301 .22430118 29889+0 21000-3 0 90550
2 26665 42.5634 286.8083 0018045 213.1366 146.7502 16.49808819 1714
CZ-2 R/B 10.0 4.0 0.0 2.0 d 40 141 x 122 km
1 26665U 01001B 01020.37921526 .29837921 80070+0 18619-3 0 90550
2 26665 42.5627 286.3960 0014503 213.6160 146.2919 16.52871679 1723
CZ-2 R/B 10.0 4.0 0.0 2.0 d 40 125 x 113 km
1 26665U 01001B 01020.43956061 .62564510 52518+1 20879-3 0 90555
2 26665 42.5616 285.9824 0009098 214.0968 145.8447 16.57859382 1733
Note: The latest elset shows this running 1.1 sec early against the
prediction I posted yesterday. My estimate puts decay southbound over
the southern Pacific.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Fri Jan 19 2001 - 12:38:48 PST