Decay watch: 2001 Jan 19

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Fri Jan 19 2001 - 12:37:30 PST

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    My Decay Watch page has been updated with a further prediction for
    the Shenzhou 2 rocket and the first predictions for an aux motor from
    the Express 3A launch.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26499 = 00- 31 E = Express 3A aux motor
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 19 14:09     Jan 20 23:11 +-21h       43.3 N   156.6 W
    SatEvo     Jan 19 20:20     Jan 20 21:43 +-7h        43.6 N   123.8 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Express 3A aux motor                             3157 x 97 km
    1 26499U 00031E   01019.79182005  .79374653  26445-4  22664-2 0  1440
    2 26499  46.6455 210.7055 1911347  76.1612   1.3277 12.12271224  5044
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page
    ..(ends)
    Express 3A aux motor                             869 x 82 km
    1 26499U 00031E   01020.82328785 3.78485780  72491+1  23601-2 0 91448
    2 26499  46.5223 206.5124 0573868  80.3149 286.1176 15.30125946  5187
    Express 3A aux motor                             510 x 79 km
    1 26499U 00031E   01020.88689716 6.97022727  35849+2  26879-2 0 91447
    2 26499  46.5078 206.1569 0322565  80.6683 282.9642 15.92754367  5192
    
    Note: I put decay near perigee on the last of these predicted orbits,
    just after northern apex while it is eastbound in daylight over southern
    Oregon. SpaceCom puts has it decaying one orbit later a little further
    west.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26665 = 01-  1 B = Shenzhou 2 Long March 2F rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 19 11:05     Jan 20 11:17 +-16h        7.8 N   168.8 E
    SatEvo     Jan 19 20:10     Jan 20 11:31 +-5h        36.5 S   133.8 W
    
    Latest elset:
    CZ-2 R/B        10.0  4.0  0.0  2.0 d   40       207 x 157 km
    1 26665U 01001B   01019.46623701  .04123922  87091-5  42798-3 0   556
    2 26665  42.5673 292.5284 0038493 206.4878 153.4952 16.33964464  1576
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    CZ-2 R/B        10.0  4.0  0.0  2.0 d   40       192 x 149 km
    1 26665U 01001B   01019.83244874  .07023520  30199-1  36882-3 0 90552
    2 26665  42.5663 290.0849 0032754 209.3279 150.4878 16.38365403  1630
    CZ-2 R/B        10.0  4.0  0.0  2.0 d   40       181 x 144 km
    1 26665U 01001B   01020.01516281  .09319173  56487-1  30128-3 0 90557
    2 26665  42.5656 288.8595 0028818 210.7524 149.0785 16.41307187  1663
    CZ-2 R/B        10.0  4.0  0.0  2.0 d   40       172 x 139 km
    1 26665U 01001B   01020.13676734  .12100366  10411+0  26336-3 0 90557
    2 26665  42.5649 288.0406 0025407 211.7042 148.1425 16.43880157  1683
    CZ-2 R/B        10.0  4.0  0.0  2.0 d   40       160 x 133 km
    1 26665U 01001B   01020.25815163  .17599778  22493+0  22986-3 0 90555
    2 26665  42.5640 287.2198 0020946 212.6583 147.2119 16.47399274  1708
    CZ-2 R/B        10.0  4.0  0.0  2.0 d   40       152 x 128 km
    1 26665U 01001B   01020.31873301  .22430118  29889+0  21000-3 0 90550
    2 26665  42.5634 286.8083 0018045 213.1366 146.7502 16.49808819  1714
    CZ-2 R/B        10.0  4.0  0.0  2.0 d   40       141 x 122 km
    1 26665U 01001B   01020.37921526  .29837921  80070+0  18619-3 0 90550
    2 26665  42.5627 286.3960 0014503 213.6160 146.2919 16.52871679  1723
    CZ-2 R/B        10.0  4.0  0.0  2.0 d   40       125 x 113 km
    1 26665U 01001B   01020.43956061  .62564510  52518+1  20879-3 0 90555
    2 26665  42.5616 285.9824 0009098 214.0968 145.8447 16.57859382  1733
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running 1.1 sec early against the
    prediction I posted yesterday. My estimate puts decay southbound over
    the southern Pacific.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Fri Jan 19 2001 - 12:38:48 PST