Decay Forecast CZ-2 R/B

From: Harro Zimmer (Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de)
Date: Thu Jan 18 2001 - 12:26:54 PST

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    Report time 20:00 UTC
    
    01001B (#26665) CZ-2 R/B
    SPACECOM'S  2 HOURS BEFORE DECAY message - prepared Jan 18, 11:38 UTC - shows 
    the decay on         20 January, 10:31 UTC +/-01 day (12.7S, 354.9E)
    on a northbound pass over the Atlantic.
    MPM + REENTRY delivers with the ELSET'S 01017.933... - 01018.486... the decay
    on                   20 January, 15:05 UTC +/- 90 minutes (15.5N, 316.5E)
    also on an ascending pass over the Atlantic.
    This time is nearly identical with my preceding data 23 hours ago. Alan's 
    predictions shows the same behavior. I don't see any reason for  SPACECOM'S 
    6 hours jump forward between their  3 DAYS BEFORE DECAY message and the fresh 
    forecast. The predicted solar flux for the next 48 hours is furthermore 
    decreasing. I see no indication for an earlier decay.
    
    Harro
    
    Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de
    Berlin Germany  
    
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