Decay watch: 2001 Jan 12

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Fri Jan 12 2001 - 12:26:57 PST

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    See my Decay Watch page for more about the following...
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #16110 = 85- 90 A = Cosmos 1689
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 12 10:06     Jan 14 10:15 +-1d        48.4 N    84.2 E
    SatEvo     Jan 12 19:30     Jan 14 09:35 +-9h        16.9 S    93.1 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1689      6.0  1.4  0.0  5.2 v   19       206 x 198 km
    1 16110U 85090A   01012.62802105  .02955541  25572-5  92735-3 0  6116
    2 16110  97.5845 160.1739 0006233 319.6111  40.4625 16.26498961841244
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running 12 sec early against 
    yesterday's prediction.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #22659 = 93- 32 C = GPS 2-20 r2 (PAM-D)
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 12 14:13     Jan 12 16:40 +-4h        14.5 N    28.4 E
    SatEvo     Jan 12 20:10     Jan 12 19:23 +-3h         0.0      36.7 W
    
    Latest elset:
    GPS 2-20 r2      3.0  1.5  0.0  6.5 d  2.9       304 x 126 km
    1 22659U 93032C   01012.38093652  .22725556  22836-5  55195-3 0  5726
    2 22659  34.6067   9.7083 0134594 334.1197  25.2752 16.21688660183282
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running 103 sec early against 
    yesterday's prediction. My SatEvo prediction for the final three 
    revs runs is:
    GPS 2-20 r2      3.0  1.5  0.0  6.5 d  2.9       231 x 121 km
    1 22659U 93032C   01012.62621641  .40595991  47686+0  56416-3 0 95726
    2 22659  34.6037   7.8994 0083960 336.7430  22.8794 16.36082049183326
    GPS 2-20 r2      3.0  1.5  0.0  6.5 d  2.9       204 x 119 km
    1 22659U 93032C   01012.68714151  .51754828  72885+0  54043-3 0 95722
    2 22659  34.6026   7.4433 0065502 337.4046  22.3084 16.41658173183332
    GPS 2-20 r2      3.0  1.5  0.0  6.5 d  2.9       170 x 114 km
    1 22659U 93032C   01012.74783362  .77422551  31190+1  50837-3 0 95724
    2 22659  34.6012   6.9847 0042391 338.0697  21.7495 16.49016358183341
    I put decay near the end of this final predicted orbit, close to a 
    northbound equator crossing over the Atlantic to the NE of Brazil.
    One or more further elsets may yet appear.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #24745 = 97- 10 B = Zeya Start-1 rocket
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 12 09:32     Jan 12 07:33 +-30m       29.9 S    71.7 E
    SatEvo     Jan 12 19:45     Jan 12 07:41 +-40m       12.6 N    63.5 E
    
    Final elset:
    Zeya r           3.0  0.0  0.0  6.0 d  3.7       129 x 125 km
    1 24745U 97010B   01012.19736915  .20993328  27472-5  12537-3 0  9235
    2 24745  97.1559 292.0000 0002960 233.7257 126.3370 16.54805521217592
    
    Note: The final elset shows this running 40 sec late against yesterday's
    prediction. This definitely lasted longer than I expected. I suspect
    that it decayed northbound over the Arabian Sea (NE Indian Ocean) on the
    following SatEvo-predicted orbit:
    Zeya r           3.0  0.0  0.0  6.0 d  3.7       122 x 119 km
    1 24745U 97010B   01012.25779860  .30061881  11897+1  13069-3 0 99238
    2 24745  97.1549 292.0701 0002222 233.4664 126.5132 16.57230330217602
    Earlier in that orbit it would have passed southbound over N America
    from the middle of Hudson Bay at 06:40 UTC to Minneapolis at 06:44
    and Houston at 06:47. the next rev would have carried it southwards
    from Calgary at 08:09 to Los Angeles at 08:13.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Fri Jan 12 2001 - 12:28:29 PST