The Cosmos 1701 rocket is down and the Zeya rocket will follow in a few
hours, possibly on a southbound pass over North America. the following
summarises my Decay Watch page update - check the page for further
details and predicted elsets where that are not given below...
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #16110 = 85- 90 A = Cosmos 1689
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 10 10:17 Jan 14 10:27 +-2d 2.5 S 72.3 E
SatEvo Jan 11 20:15 Jan 14 14:49 +-16h
Latest elset:
Cosmos 1689 6.0 1.4 0.0 5.2 v 19 219 x 212 km
1 16110U 85090A 01011.70371428 .01874263 00000-0 88216-3 0 6059
2 16110 97.5900 159.0842 0005812 313.5607 46.5788 16.21573580841099
Note: Eclipse entry occurs northbound near 36 deg S at ~03:30 local
time, with eclipse exit while southbound near 72 deg N at ~16:30. The
latest elset shows this running 2 sec early against yesterday's
prediction.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #16243 = 85-105 D = Cosmos 1701 rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 11 10:18 Jan 11 16:35 +-4h 44.8 N 19.9 W
SatEvo Jan 11 20:25 Jan 11 15:28 +-7h 38.6 S 49.6 E
Latest (final?) elset:
Cosmos 1701 r 348 x 94 km
1 16243U 85105D 01011.60614418 .99999999 00000-0 95302-3 0 397
2 16243 63.2810 189.4981 0192507 195.1410 164.4474 16.19631402 657
Note: The latest elset shows it running 6.1 min early against
yesterday's SatEvo prediction. I estimate that this decayed following
perigee on the orbit given by the above elset. This puts is southbound
over the SW Indian Ocean, to the S of Madagascar. SpaceCom's final two
notices for this have not yet appeared.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #22659 = 93- 32 C = GPS 2-20 r2 (PAM-D)
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 10 18:08 Jan 12 18:20 +-1d 31.6 M 43.7 E
SatEvo Jan 11 20:35 Jan 13 01:21 +-9h
Latest elset:
GPS 2-20 r2 3.0 1.5 0.0 6.5 d 2.9 450 x 134 km
1 22659U 93032C 01011.44820593 .21591272 00000-0 11715-2 0 5676
2 22659 34.6126 16.3736 0236959 325.8309 32.7848 15.93617928183159
SatEvo prediction:
..(ends)
GPS 2-20 r2 3.0 1.5 0.0 6.5 d 2.9 190 x 117 km
1 22659U 93032C 01012.93412707 .48175199 79367+0 42846-3 0 95670
2 22659 34.6016 5.6543 0055434 341.3753 18.4227 16.44627801183393
GPS 2-20 r2 3.0 1.5 0.0 6.5 d 2.9 155 x 112 km
1 22659U 93032C 01012.99470668 .87304850 44289+1 44464-3 0 95671
2 22659 34.6003 5.1947 0033648 342.0419 17.8395 16.52212956183403
Note: The latest elset shows this running 8 sec early against
yesterday's prediction. The latest elset from OIG, one of three for
that rev and already almost 10 hours old, appears to have a too-high
drag.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #24745 = 97- 10 B = Zeya Start-1 rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 11 03:53 Jan 12 03:54 +-16h 32.2 N 53.0 W
SatEvo Jan 11 20:50 Jan 12 05:02 +-3h 75.2 N 76.7 E
Latest elset:
Zeya r 3.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 d 3.7 153 x 150 km
1 24745U 97010B 01011.71187704 .05175304 00000-0 15073-3 0 9182
2 24745 97.1571 291.4444 0001987 207.1487 153.0381 16.45451573217514
SatEvo prediction:
Zeya r 3.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 d 3.7 148 x 145 km
1 24745U 97010B 01011.83340752 .07929569 57545-1 16088-3 0 99184
2 24745 97.1565 291.5835 0001801 206.6338 153.3569 16.47296597217534
Zeya r 3.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 d 3.7 145 x 143 km
1 24745U 97010B 01011.89413803 .09145546 80083-1 15352-3 0 99181
2 24745 97.1562 291.6531 0001690 206.3760 153.6153 16.48329505217547
Zeya r 3.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 d 3.7 142 x 140 km
1 24745U 97010B 01011.95482751 .10893425 11947+0 14805-3 0 99187
2 24745 97.1558 291.7228 0001563 206.1180 153.8741 16.49538489217559
Zeya r 3.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 d 3.7 138 x 136 km
1 24745U 97010B 01012.01546807 .13675964 20037+0 14566-3 0 99181
2 24745 97.1553 291.7926 0001411 205.8597 154.1332 16.51013636217565
Zeya r 3.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 d 3.7 132 x 131 km
1 24745U 97010B 01012.07604703 .18878412 41050+0 14909-3 0 99184
2 24745 97.1546 291.8624 0001219 205.6011 154.3929 16.52947738217573
Zeya r 3.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 d 3.7 125 x 123 km
1 24745U 97010B 01012.13654013 .30802674 98108+0 16131-3 0 99186
2 24745 97.1537 291.9324 0000946 205.3419 154.6534 16.55844546217588
Zeya r 3.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 d 3.7 109 x 109 km
1 24745U 97010B 01012.19689059 1.05060618 22147+2 27099-3 0 99184
2 24745 97.1522 292.0026 0000552 205.0819 154.9154 16.61577425217595
Note: The latest shows this running 14 sec late against yesterday's
prediction. I show this decaying over the the far N of Russia on the
orbit given by the final predicted elset above. If it survives a little
longer, there is a southbound pass over north-eastern North America
from Quebec, Canada, at 05:15 UTC to New York at 05:17. The uncertainty
is such that there may be further passes over Canada and the USA
on the next one or two orbits.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Jan 11 2001 - 13:18:19 PST