Decay watch: 2001 Jan 10

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Jan 10 2001 - 12:43:44 PST

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    SpaceCom has added Cosmos 1689 to the list of objects for which decay
    notices are being posted. More details on the following, including my
    predicted elsets, are on my Decay Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #16110 = 85- 90 A = Cosmos 1689
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    
    SpaceCom   Jan 10 10:17     Jan 14 10:27 +-2d         2.5 S    72.3 E
    SatEvo     Jan 10 20:20     Jan 14 16:17 +-1d
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1689      6.0  1.4  0.0  5.2 v   19       229 x 222 km
    1 16110U 85090A   01010.65335227  .01472434  25238-5  92499-3 0  5998
    2 16110  97.5935 157.8578 0005657 320.3427  39.7466 16.17771724840925
    
    Note: Eclipse entry occurs northbound near 36 deg S at ~03:30 local
    time, with eclipse exit while southbound near 72 deg N at ~16:30.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #16243 = 85-105 D = Cosmos 1701 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 10 16:31     Jan 11 14:12 +-14h       55.3 S   179.7 E
    SatEvo     Jan 10 20:10     Jan 11 17:01 +-7h        29.7 S    19.2 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1701 r                                    1238 x 102 km
    1 16243U 85105D   01010.64886473  .48879671  14353-5  10132-2 0   297
    2 16243  63.3670 192.8475 0805660 186.0478 314.7429 14.67349501   503
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    ..(ends)
    Cosmos 1701 r                                    470 x 99 km
    1 16243U 85105D   01011.61035141 1.43646685  20429+1  14508-2 0 90292
    2 16243  63.3177 189.5352 0279017 186.0713 173.5834 15.96401114   654
    Cosmos 1701 r                                    354 x 97 km
    1 16243U 85105D   01011.67262096 2.10581468  71560+1  16467-2 0 90299
    2 16243  63.3090 189.2923 0194731 186.0736 173.6866 16.17710323   669
    
    Note: The latest elset shows it running 2.5 min late against yesterday's
    SatEvo prediction. I show it decaying southbound to the north of Cape
    Town, South Africa. the uncertainty, though, is still several hours.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #22659 = 93- 32 C = GPS 2-20 r2 (PAM-D)
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 10 18:08     Jan 12 18:20 +-1d        31.6 M    43.7 E
    SatEvo     Jan 10 20:00     Jan 13 02:51 +-16h
    
    Latest elset:
    GPS 2-20 r2      3.0  1.5  0.0  6.5 d  2.9       526 x 138 km
    1 22659U 93032C   01010.62986515  .06862564  80617-6  54797-3 0  5609
    2 22659  34.6191  22.0598 0289215 317.8083  40.0897 15.79386802183002
    
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running 19 sec early against 
    yesterday's prediction.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #24745 = 97- 10 B = Zeya Start-1 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan 10 07:17     Jan 12 01:35 +-1d        60.5 S   169.9 E
    SatEvo     Jan 10 20:05     Jan 12 02:32 +-8h
    
    Latest elset:
    Zeya r           3.0  0.0  0.0  6.0 d  3.7       175 x 170 km
    1 24745U 97010B   01010.67517454  .02748494  24119-5  29767-3 0  9084
    2 24745  97.1639 290.2678 0004232 142.8754 217.2865 16.37496707217343
    
    Note: The latest shows this running 16 sec late against the SatEvo 
    prediction I posted yesterday.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Wed Jan 10 2001 - 12:49:56 PST