Successful PREDICTED ISS Flare

From: Ron Lee (ronlee@pcisys.net)
Date: Mon Jan 08 2001 - 17:25:31 PST

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    (Stay tuned for a report from another Seesat regular on a 
    DEFINITE success...)  --Rob
    
    I guess that would be me.  On 3 Jan, Rob Matson sent me email
    predicting a magnitude -3 to -4.5 flare from ISS at 7:06:55 AM 
    local on 8 Jan 2001.  Now this was about 10 minutes prior to
    sunrise so I was skeptical I would see it.
    
    Sunday night, I ran Skymap to find stars near the predicted
    flare point so I could orient myself to the exact, or close to,
    location of the flare.  By standing right by a certain tree,
    looking over another tree for azimuth, then a branch on the
    adjacent tree for elevation, I could be certain of looking in
    the right area with no reference stars.
    
    This morning I go out about 07:00 local and am glad that there
    is a bit of darkness still to the sky.  However, magnitude 0
    Vega is near the flare location but not visible.
    
    So I double and triple check the elevation and about 30 seconds
    prior I scan a bit.  Then a few degrees away I see a flare that
    is easily visible.  I was amazed that it was predicted and bright
    enough to be seen just minutes before sunrise.  It faded in several 
    seconds and I looked at my watch.  7:06:59 AM.  So Rob's prediction
    was right on.  magnitude is unknown but I will go by Rob's estimate.
    
    What a way to start the work week.  This was a lot of fun and I 
    appreciate being asked to check out Rob's predictions..Just like
    I did with normal and lunar Iridium flares.  I like these
    challenges despite my initial skepticism over impending sunrise.
    
    Excellent work Rob.  Let's try more even though they are likely to
    be rare from a given location compared to Iridium flares.
    
    Ron Lee
    
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