From the update of my Decay Watch page...
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #22659 = 93- 32 C = GPS 2-20 r2 (PAM-D)
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 4 08:50 Jan 12 13:15 +-5d 31.8 S 4.6 W
SatEvo Jan 6 12:20 Jan 13 20:58 +-2.3d
Latest elset:
GPS 2-20 r2 3.0 1.5 0.0 6.5 d 2.9 764 x 146 km
1 22659U 93032C 01006.39440911 .03809432 12390-6 67861-3 0 5390
2 22659 34.6230 50.2771 0452319 276.9801 77.9642 15.37163496182341
SatEvo prediction: See my Decay Watch page
Note: The latest elset shows this running 51 sec late against the
prediction I made two days ago.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #22925 = 93- 72 E = Gorizont 29 aux motor
Final decay analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 6 04:52 Jan 6 01:19 +-34m 8.6 N 116.1 E
SatEvo Jan 6 10:30 Jan 6 01:16 -90+20m 8.4 N 115.9 E
Final elsets:
Gorz 29 AuxMtr 2.0 1.0 0.0 7.5 d 2 381 x 75 km
1 22925U 93072E 01005.99055793 .99999999 00000-0 55449-3 0 8669
2 22925 46.5083 232.7392 0231701 12.5448 348.1842 16.16812968 96456
Gorz 29 AuxMtr 2.0 1.0 0.0 7.5 d 2 277 x 180 km
1 22925U 93072E 01005.99026297 .99999999 00000-0 82016-1 0 8675
2 22925 46.5061 232.9702 0073868 50.6786 310.1373 16.16696341 96458
Note: The final elset shows this running 4 min early against my final
prediction and the end came sooner that SpaceCom or I had expected.
In fact, the two final elsets are discordant with regard to the perigee
height and it is not impossible that this decayed soon after the epoch
of these elsets, 23:46 UTC. However, like SpaceCom, I put the most
likely decay point over eastern Malaysia. If it survived only a short
distance, it would have passed over Manila in the Philippines at 01:18.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #24745 = 97- 10 B = Zeya Start-1 rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 4 08:54 Jan 8 01:10 +-2d 40.6 N 10.8 W
SatEvo Jan 6 12:05 Jan 12 12:47 +-1.6d
Latest elset:
Zeya r 3.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 d 3.7 211 x 205 km
1 24745U 97010B 01006.43865476 .00908468 23127-5 34122-3 0 8875
2 24745 97.1668 285.5329 0004381 116.7179 243.4539 16.24409228216651
SatEvo prediction: See my Decay Watch page
Note: SpaceCom appears to have this decaying too quickly. The latest
shows this running only 0.6 sec late against the SatEvo prediction
I posted two days ago.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sat Jan 06 2001 - 04:32:26 PST