Decay watch: 2001 Jan 6

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sat Jan 06 2001 - 04:31:10 PST

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    From the update of my Decay Watch page...
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #22659 = 93- 32 C = GPS 2-20 r2 (PAM-D)
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan  4 08:50     Jan 12 13:15 +-5d        31.8 S     4.6 W
    SatEvo     Jan  6 12:20     Jan 13 20:58 +-2.3d
    
    Latest elset:
    GPS 2-20 r2      3.0  1.5  0.0  6.5 d  2.9       764 x 146 km
    1 22659U 93032C   01006.39440911  .03809432  12390-6  67861-3 0  5390
    2 22659  34.6230  50.2771 0452319 276.9801  77.9642 15.37163496182341
    
    SatEvo prediction: See my Decay Watch page
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running 51 sec late against the
    prediction I made two days ago.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #22925 = 93- 72 E = Gorizont 29 aux motor
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan  6 04:52     Jan  6 01:19 +-34m        8.6 N   116.1 E
    SatEvo     Jan  6 10:30     Jan  6 01:16 -90+20m      8.4 N   115.9 E
    
    Final elsets:
    Gorz 29 AuxMtr   2.0  1.0  0.0  7.5 d    2       381 x 75 km
    1 22925U 93072E   01005.99055793  .99999999  00000-0  55449-3 0  8669
    2 22925  46.5083 232.7392 0231701  12.5448 348.1842 16.16812968 96456
    Gorz 29 AuxMtr   2.0  1.0  0.0  7.5 d    2       277 x 180 km
    1 22925U 93072E   01005.99026297  .99999999  00000-0  82016-1 0  8675
    2 22925  46.5061 232.9702 0073868  50.6786 310.1373 16.16696341 96458
    
    Note: The final elset shows this running 4 min early against my final 
    prediction and the end came sooner that SpaceCom or I had expected.
    In fact, the two final elsets are discordant with regard to the perigee
    height and it is not impossible that this decayed soon after the epoch
    of these elsets, 23:46 UTC. However, like SpaceCom, I put the most 
    likely decay point over eastern Malaysia. If it survived only a short
    distance, it would have passed over Manila in the Philippines at 01:18.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #24745 = 97- 10 B = Zeya Start-1 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan  4 08:54     Jan  8 01:10 +-2d        40.6 N    10.8 W
    SatEvo     Jan  6 12:05     Jan 12 12:47 +-1.6d
    
    Latest elset:
    Zeya r           3.0  0.0  0.0  6.0 d  3.7       211 x 205 km
    1 24745U 97010B   01006.43865476  .00908468  23127-5  34122-3 0  8875
    2 24745  97.1668 285.5329 0004381 116.7179 243.4539 16.24409228216651
    
    SatEvo prediction: See my Decay Watch page
    
    Note: SpaceCom appears to have this decaying too quickly. The latest 
    shows this running only 0.6 sec late against the SatEvo prediction 
    I posted two days ago.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sat Jan 06 2001 - 04:32:26 PST