Gorizont 29 aux motor decay alert

From: Matson, Robert (ROBERT.D.MATSON@saic.com)
Date: Fri Jan 05 2001 - 11:36:34 PST

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    Hi All,
    
    Been taking a close look at the Gorizont 29 aux motor reentry
    trajectories for this afternoon.  While there's a nice pass
    off the coast of southern California this evening during
    the reentry window, there's no chance reentry can occur
    at that time.  (Reentry will occur on an ascending node in
    the eastern hemisphere).
    
    Based on the latest SATEVO-generated orbits posted by Alan,
    the reentry has a good chance of occurring on the ascending
    node that passes close to Palau -- indeed, Palau would actually
    have a decent chance of observing it if it weren't for the
    fact that it occurs in midmorning (5 January ~23:52 UT).
    
    For this pass, use the following TLE:
    
    Gorz 29 AuxMtr   2.0  1.0  0.0  7.5 d    2       469 x 104 km
    1 22925U 93072E   01005.99304977 1.25862831  17487+1  14805-2 0 98604
    2 22925  46.5186 233.0362 0274072   7.6975 352.7148 15.95655246 96392
    
    (Be sure to propagate using HANDE or SGP; SGP4 does not work well
    with SATEVO-generated element sets for objects close to decay.)
    
    If it doesn't come in on this orbit, reentry looks possible off the
    coast of Singapore toward Malasia/Borneo at ~1:21 UT.  This rev
    continues over the north island of the Philippines (Luzon) about
    4 minutes later.  For this orbit, use:
    
    Gorz 29 AuxMtr   2.0  1.0  0.0  7.5 d    2       369 x 102 km
    1 22925U 93072E   01006.05530012 1.80217268  44407+1  16763-2 0 98609
    2 22925  46.5142 232.6651 0201315   8.0663 352.2525 16.14154508 96402
    
    I believe we have a list member in Singapore (ykChia); unfortunately,
    it's currently about 3:45am there local time, so he probably won't
    see this message for several hours.  --Rob
    
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