Decay watch: 2001 Jan 5

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Fri Jan 05 2001 - 09:11:16 PST

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    System problems outside my control are again inhibiting the updates of
    my elset files (dklist/select/iridiums/etc, but not satbase) on my WWW
    page. The files _should_be_ available by FTP via the link on that page.
    
    Meantime, I have updated my Decay watch page for the following
    objects...
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #22925 = 93- 72 E = Gorizont 29 aux motor
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan  5 15:20     Jan  6 03:11 +-7h        46.1 N   158.8 E
    SatEvo     Jan  5 16:35     Jan  6 02:57 +-4h        26.2 N   109.8 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Gorz 29 AuxMtr   2.0  1.0  0.0  7.5 d    2       878 x 104 km
    1 22925U 93072E   01005.54430863  .44104572  13084-4  78812-3 0  8614
    2 22925  46.5433 235.5747 0563069   5.4362 357.9979 15.24929911 96321
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Gorz 29 AuxMtr   2.0  1.0  0.0  7.5 d    2       725 x 107 km
    1 22925U 93072E   01005.73866061  .68309102  34245+0  12288-2 0 98609
    2 22925  46.5311 234.4819 0454720   6.2614 354.2884 15.50223190 96359
    Gorz 29 AuxMtr   2.0  1.0  0.0  7.5 d    2       672 x 107 km
    1 22925U 93072E   01005.80291318  .75830892  44564+0  12634-2 0 98607
    2 22925  46.5287 234.1250 0417816   6.6158 353.9193 15.59461743 96366
    Gorz 29 AuxMtr   2.0  1.0  0.0  7.5 d    2       614 x 106 km
    1 22925U 93072E   01005.86676340  .86030090  64968+0  13094-2 0 98600
    2 22925  46.5251 233.7654 0376788   6.9730 353.5367 15.69759721 96378
    Gorz 29 AuxMtr   2.0  1.0  0.0  7.5 d    2       547 x 105 km
    1 22925U 93072E   01005.93016505 1.00987079  98590+0  13766-2 0 98608
    2 22925  46.5221 233.4027 0329927   7.3334 353.1377 15.81547971 96388
    Gorz 29 AuxMtr   2.0  1.0  0.0  7.5 d    2       469 x 104 km
    1 22925U 93072E   01005.99304977 1.25862831  17487+1  14805-2 0 98604
    2 22925  46.5186 233.0362 0274072   7.6975 352.7148 15.95655246 96392
    Gorz 29 AuxMtr   2.0  1.0  0.0  7.5 d    2       369 x 102 km
    1 22925U 93072E   01006.05530012 1.80217268  44407+1  16763-2 0 98609
    2 22925  46.5142 232.6651 0201315   8.0663 352.2525 16.14154508 96402
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running 7.4 minutes early against
    yesterday's prediction. I estimate that this will decay following the
    northbound equator crossing at the end of the final predicted rev.
    This puts it NE-bound over China. If it survives, it passes over
    Sapporo in northern Japan at 03:05 UTC.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23854 = 96- 25 B = Cosmos 2332 rocket
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan  4 23:44     Jan  4 21:42 +-47m       66.3 N   172.9 E
    SatEvo     Jan  4 19:20     Jan  4 22:47 +-90m        1.6 S     5.7 W
    SatEvo     Jan  5 16:55     Jan  4 21:51 +-30m       52.1 N   179.4 E
    
    Final elset:
    Cosmos 2332 r    7.4  2.4  0.0  5.5 v   12       143 x 127 km
    1 23854U 96025B   01004.82867189  .27319535 -12723-5  23529-3 0  4667
    2 23854  82.8460  81.0097 0012101 126.1509 234.1585 16.51595908246971
    
    Note: Apologies for the typo in my prediction yesterday that had it
    decaying on the 5th, rather than the 4th. The final elset has this 5
    seconds early against the prediction I had made a few hours before. I
    estimate that this decayed in the vicinity of perigee on the following
    SatEvo-predicted rev...
    Cosmos 2332 r    7.4  2.4  0.0  5.5 v   12       120 x 111 km
    1 23854U 96025B   01004.88909458 1.10507920  50000+2  37715-3 0 94665
    2 23854  82.8437  80.9397 0006400 125.8917 234.1677 16.59114145246981
    ...possibly southbound over the Aleutian Islands en route to Samoa at
    22:07 UTC.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Fri Jan 05 2001 - 09:12:46 PST