The decays of both #22925 and #23854 have shifted earlier after both
objects appeared to suffer a spell of increased drag earlier today. The
following new predictions for these, and two new decayers, are taken
from my updated Decay Watch page...
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #22659 = 93- 32 C = GPS 2-20 r2 (PAM-D)
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 4 08:50 Jan 12 13:15 +-5d 31.8 S 4.6 W
SatEvo Jan 4 17:35 Jan 13 10:08 +-3d
Latest elset:
GPS 2-20 r2 3.0 1.5 0.0 6.5 d 2.9 842 x 143 km
1 22659U 93032C 01004.56820307 .03138611 00000-0 47129-3 0 5307
2 22659 34.6174 62.0049 0508813 259.5980 94.7351 15.24574163182069
SatEvo prediction: See my Decay Watch page
Note: This enters eclipse while northbound near 11 deg S at ~19:30
local time and leaves eclipse southbound near 31 deg N at ~05:00.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #22925 = 93- 72 E = Gorizont 29 aux motor
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 3 12:23 Jan 6 12:30 +-2d 17.5 N 45.0 W
SatEvo Jan 4 19:00 Jan 6 10:56 +-12h
Latest elset:
Gorz 29 AuxMtr 2.0 1.0 0.0 7.5 d 2 1309 x 117 km
1 22925U 93072E 01004.67087228 .23284379 00000-0 95945-3 0 8572
2 22925 46.5839 239.9217 0840211 0.8550 359.4251 14.53906682 96215
SatEvo prediction:
Gorz 29 AuxMtr 2.0 1.0 0.0 7.5 d 2 1190 x 116 km
1 22925U 93072E 01005.01231231 .29045753 36961-1 10471-2 0 98578
2 22925 46.5777 238.2625 0763894 2.4991 357.8616 14.72636448 96262
Gorz 29 AuxMtr 2.0 1.0 0.0 7.5 d 2 1087 x 114 km
1 22925U 93072E 01005.28222004 .32525949 50515-1 10451-2 0 98578
2 22925 46.5722 236.9166 0696520 3.8331 356.6738 14.89206429 96308
Gorz 29 AuxMtr 2.0 1.0 0.0 7.5 d 2 973 x 113 km
1 22925U 93072E 01005.54896297 .37394860 73512-1 10508-2 0 98574
2 22925 46.5666 235.5520 0621383 5.1859 355.4288 15.07774120 96349
Gorz 29 AuxMtr 2.0 1.0 0.0 7.5 d 2 845 x 111 km
1 22925U 93072E 01005.81219305 .44884269 12351+0 10703-2 0 98577
2 22925 46.5595 234.1658 0534896 6.5606 354.1129 15.29266805 96388
Gorz 29 AuxMtr 2.0 1.0 0.0 7.5 d 2 733 x 110 km
1 22925U 93072E 01006.00699428 .54144455 20553+0 11030-2 0 98571
2 22925 46.5540 233.1094 0458344 7.6085 353.0639 15.48401324 96413
Note: The latest elset has this 133 sec early against yesterday's
prediction.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #23854 = 96- 25 B = Cosmos 2332 rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 4 10:47 Jan 4 22:50 +-8h 5.5 S 6.0 W
SatEvo Jan 4 19:20 Jan 5 22:47 +-90m 1.6 S 5.7 W
Latest elset:
Cosmos 2332 r 7.4 2.4 0.0 5.5 v 12 173 x 144 km
1 23854U 96025B 01004.64641763 .09188989 00000-0 26834-3 0 4641
2 23854 82.8435 81.2127 0022802 113.4885 246.9518 16.42747762246945
SatEvo prediction:
Cosmos 2332 r 7.4 2.4 0.0 5.5 v 12 158 x 134 km
1 23854U 96025B 01004.76802062 .22160560 34614+0 31304-3 0 94649
2 23854 82.8420 81.0737 0018485 112.9741 247.2210 16.47613558246966
Cosmos 2332 r 7.4 2.4 0.0 5.5 v 12 147 x 127 km
1 23854U 96025B 01004.82869782 .30090186 50929+0 27975-3 0 94649
2 23854 82.8410 81.0040 0015428 112.7161 247.4470 16.50748428246970
Cosmos 2332 r 7.4 2.4 0.0 5.5 v 12 134 x 119 km
1 23854U 96025B 01004.88923912 .44626178 17416+1 24342-3 0 94642
2 23854 82.8396 80.9341 0011406 112.4573 247.6635 16.55035420246983
Note: The latest elset has it running 57 sec early against yesterday's
prediction. Like SpaceCom, I show this decaying near a northbound
equator crossing near Ascension Is in the Atlantic.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #24745 = 97- 10 B = Zeya Start-1 rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jan 4 08:54 Jan 8 01:10 +-2d 40.6 N 10.8 W
SatEvo Jan 4 17:45 Jan 12 07:37 +-2.5d
Latest elset:
Zeya r 3.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 d 3.7 221 x 215 km
1 24745U 97010B 01004.27995906 .00743647 22897-5 37707-3 0 8744
2 24745 97.1655 283.1480 0005023 109.0949 251.1055 16.20640564216300
SatEvo prediction: See my Decay Watch page
Note: Eclipse entry occurs northbound over the Arctic while the exit
point is southbound near 52 deg S at ~23:00 local time. SpaceCom
appears to have this decaying too quickly.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Jan 04 2001 - 12:19:35 PST