Decay watch: 2001 Jan 4

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu Jan 04 2001 - 12:18:30 PST

  • Next message: Matson, Robert: "OT: Australia, deuterium, etc."

    The decays of both #22925 and #23854 have shifted earlier after both
    objects appeared to suffer a spell of increased drag earlier today. The
    following new predictions for these, and two new decayers, are taken
    from my updated Decay Watch page...
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #22659 = 93- 32 C = GPS 2-20 r2 (PAM-D)
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan  4 08:50     Jan 12 13:15 +-5d        31.8 S     4.6 W
    SatEvo     Jan  4 17:35     Jan 13 10:08 +-3d
    
    Latest elset:
    GPS 2-20 r2      3.0  1.5  0.0  6.5 d  2.9       842 x 143 km
    1 22659U 93032C   01004.56820307  .03138611  00000-0  47129-3 0  5307
    2 22659  34.6174  62.0049 0508813 259.5980  94.7351 15.24574163182069
    
    SatEvo prediction: See my Decay Watch page
    
    Note: This enters eclipse while northbound near 11 deg S at ~19:30
    local time and leaves eclipse southbound near 31 deg N at ~05:00.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #22925 = 93- 72 E = Gorizont 29 aux motor
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan  3 12:23     Jan  6 12:30 +-2d        17.5 N    45.0 W
    SatEvo     Jan  4 19:00     Jan  6 10:56 +-12h
    
    Latest elset:
    Gorz 29 AuxMtr   2.0  1.0  0.0  7.5 d    2       1309 x 117 km
    1 22925U 93072E   01004.67087228  .23284379  00000-0  95945-3 0  8572
    2 22925  46.5839 239.9217 0840211   0.8550 359.4251 14.53906682 96215
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Gorz 29 AuxMtr   2.0  1.0  0.0  7.5 d    2       1190 x 116 km
    1 22925U 93072E   01005.01231231  .29045753  36961-1  10471-2 0 98578
    2 22925  46.5777 238.2625 0763894   2.4991 357.8616 14.72636448 96262
    Gorz 29 AuxMtr   2.0  1.0  0.0  7.5 d    2       1087 x 114 km
    1 22925U 93072E   01005.28222004  .32525949  50515-1  10451-2 0 98578
    2 22925  46.5722 236.9166 0696520   3.8331 356.6738 14.89206429 96308
    Gorz 29 AuxMtr   2.0  1.0  0.0  7.5 d    2       973 x 113 km
    1 22925U 93072E   01005.54896297  .37394860  73512-1  10508-2 0 98574
    2 22925  46.5666 235.5520 0621383   5.1859 355.4288 15.07774120 96349
    Gorz 29 AuxMtr   2.0  1.0  0.0  7.5 d    2       845 x 111 km
    1 22925U 93072E   01005.81219305  .44884269  12351+0  10703-2 0 98577
    2 22925  46.5595 234.1658 0534896   6.5606 354.1129 15.29266805 96388
    Gorz 29 AuxMtr   2.0  1.0  0.0  7.5 d    2       733 x 110 km
    1 22925U 93072E   01006.00699428  .54144455  20553+0  11030-2 0 98571
    2 22925  46.5540 233.1094 0458344   7.6085 353.0639 15.48401324 96413
    
    Note: The latest elset has this 133 sec early against yesterday's
    prediction.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23854 = 96- 25 B = Cosmos 2332 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan  4 10:47     Jan  4 22:50 +-8h         5.5 S     6.0 W
    SatEvo     Jan  4 19:20     Jan  5 22:47 +-90m        1.6 S     5.7 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 2332 r    7.4  2.4  0.0  5.5 v   12       173 x 144 km
    1 23854U 96025B   01004.64641763  .09188989  00000-0  26834-3 0  4641
    2 23854  82.8435  81.2127 0022802 113.4885 246.9518 16.42747762246945
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Cosmos 2332 r    7.4  2.4  0.0  5.5 v   12       158 x 134 km
    1 23854U 96025B   01004.76802062  .22160560  34614+0  31304-3 0 94649
    2 23854  82.8420  81.0737 0018485 112.9741 247.2210 16.47613558246966
    Cosmos 2332 r    7.4  2.4  0.0  5.5 v   12       147 x 127 km
    1 23854U 96025B   01004.82869782  .30090186  50929+0  27975-3 0 94649
    2 23854  82.8410  81.0040 0015428 112.7161 247.4470 16.50748428246970
    Cosmos 2332 r    7.4  2.4  0.0  5.5 v   12       134 x 119 km
    1 23854U 96025B   01004.88923912  .44626178  17416+1  24342-3 0 94642
    2 23854  82.8396  80.9341 0011406 112.4573 247.6635 16.55035420246983
    
    Note: The latest elset has it running 57 sec early against yesterday's
    prediction. Like SpaceCom, I show this decaying near a northbound
    equator crossing near Ascension Is in the Atlantic.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #24745 = 97- 10 B = Zeya Start-1 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan  4 08:54     Jan  8 01:10 +-2d        40.6 N    10.8 W
    SatEvo     Jan  4 17:45     Jan 12 07:37 +-2.5d
    
    Latest elset:
    Zeya r           3.0  0.0  0.0  6.0 d  3.7       221 x 215 km
    1 24745U 97010B   01004.27995906  .00743647  22897-5  37707-3 0  8744
    2 24745  97.1655 283.1480 0005023 109.0949 251.1055 16.20640564216300
    
    SatEvo prediction: See my Decay Watch page
    
    Note: Eclipse entry occurs northbound over the Arctic while the exit
    point is southbound near 52 deg S at ~23:00 local time. SpaceCom
    appears to have this decaying too quickly.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Jan 04 2001 - 12:19:35 PST