Decay watch: 2001 Jan 2

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue Jan 02 2001 - 12:56:47 PST

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    Another update to my Decay Watch page, including the first notices for
    the Gorizont 29 aux motor...
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #4584 = 70- 85 B = Meteor 1-6 rocket
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan  1 12:36     Jan  1 12:17 +-52m       41.2 N   117.1 W
    SatEvo     Jan  1 19:30     Jan  1 12:27 +-60m       13.6 S   110.5 W
    
    Final elset:
    Meteor 1-6 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v   11       134 x 131 km
    1 04584U 70085B   01001.42589323  .16449331 -13311-5  13531-3 0  4851
    2 04584  81.1525 355.4795 0001990  48.1898 312.1451 16.52612039654681
    
    Note: The final elset has this 10 sec early against my previous 
    prediction. I show it decaying southbound following an equator
    crossing over the eastern Pacific. There was a southbound pass
    over the USA from Spokane, Washington, at 12:12 UTC to the 
    California-Mexico border at 12:16, with SpaceCom's "ground impact"
    point along this stretch in northern Nevada. My predicted elset for
    this rev is:
    Meteor 1-6 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v   11       120 x 118 km
    1 04584U 70085B   01001.48629321  .52901277  40221+1  21316-3 0 94855
    2 04584  81.1509 355.3931 0001339  47.9421 312.0693 16.57809605654690
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #22925 = 93- 72 E = Gorizont 29 aux motor
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    
    SpaceCom   Jan  2 17:20     Jan  5 23:30 +-2d        33.9 N   175.1 E
    SatEvo     Jan  2 20:35     Jan  6 19:01 +-1.3d
    
    Latest elset:
    Gorz 29 AuxMtr   2.0  1.0  0.0  7.5 d    2       1833 x 117 km
    1 22925U 93072E   01002.68889882  .16698695  29428-4  85595-3 0  8488
    2 22925  46.6252 248.8614 1166572 351.8348   6.6334 13.76827700 95917
    
    SatEvo prediction: See my Decay Watch page
    
    Note: This enters eclipse near 20 deg N while southbound at ~20:00
    local time. Eclipse exit occurs southbound near 33 deg S near local 
    midnight.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23854 = 96- 25 B = Cosmos 2332 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan  1 22:49     Jan  4 19:44 +-2d        42.3 S    35.0 E
    SatEvo     Jan  2 20:25     Jan  5 03:46 +-15h
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 2332 r    7.4  2.4  0.0  5.5 v   12       250 x 179 km
    1 23854U 96025B   01002.55873684  .02521742 -13715-5  83938-3 0  4471
    2 23854  82.8518  83.5451 0053236 127.4065 233.2115 16.21887923246608
    
    SatEvo prediction: See my Decay Watch page
    
    Note: This enters eclipse northbound near 47 deg S at ~22:00 local 
    time and leaves eclipse southbound near 76 deg N at ~08:30. The latest
    elset has it running 11 sec late against the prediction I posted 35 
    hours ago.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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