Decay watch: 2001 Jan 1

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Mon Jan 01 2001 - 02:06:15 PST

  • Next message: Greg Roberts: "Observations 31 Dec 2000 UT"

    Happy New Year everyone :)
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #4584 = 70- 85 B = Meteor 1-6 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jan  1 06:33     Jan  1 12:50 +-4h        80.1 S     1.0 W
    SatEvo     Jan  1 09:45     Jan  1 13:50 +-2h         4.1 N   134.2 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Meteor 1-6 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v   11       151 x 148 km
    1 04584U 70085B   01001.24384588  .07506268 -98382-6  18813-3 0  4838
    2 04584  81.1551 355.7337 0001915 264.8589  95.1138 16.46188960654657
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Meteor 1-6 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v   11       147 x 144 km
    1 04584U 70085B   01001.30460482  .11606056  11407+0  21886-3 0 94832
    2 04584  81.1547 355.6478 0001789 264.6126  95.3670 16.47674052654668
    Meteor 1-6 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v   11       143 x 140 km
    1 04584U 70085B   01001.36531064  .14146088  18188+0  20216-3 0 94839
    2 04584  81.1541 355.5618 0001639 264.3661  95.6152 16.49225558654676
    Meteor 1-6 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v   11       137 x 135 km
    1 04584U 70085B   01001.42595281  .18459709  32898+0  19080-3 0 94839
    2 04584  81.1535 355.4757 0001454 264.1192  95.8642 16.51177178654688
    Meteor 1-6 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v   11       130 x 128 km
    1 04584U 70085B   01001.48651149  .27278598  73153+0  18722-3 0 94837
    2 04584  81.1526 355.3894 0001203 263.8719  96.1144 16.53875741654697
    Meteor 1-6 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v   11       119 x 118 km
    1 04584U 70085B   01001.54694678  .47384618  27347+1  18362-3 0 94836
    2 04584  81.1512 355.3029 0000830 263.6239  96.3667 16.58124908654703
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running 2 sec late against the 
    prediction I posted yesterday. I now suspect that it will survive
    several southbound passes over the USA in the coming hours and that
    re-entry is most likely near a southbound equator crossing over the 
    western Pacific.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23854 = 96- 25 B = Cosmos 2332 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    
    SpaceCom   Dec 31 19:51     Jan  4 17:21 +-2d        79.6 N   146.0 W
    SatEvo     Jan  1 09:55     Jan  4 22:01 +-22h
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 2332 r    7.4  2.4  0.0  5.5 v   12       274 x 189 km
    1 23854U 96025B   01001.19868141  .02042590 -13590-5  10129-2 0  4417
    2 23854  82.8502  85.0348 0064269 134.6606 225.9996 16.15781163246384
    
    SatEvo prediction: See my Decay Watch page
    
    Note: This enters eclipse northbound near 47 deg S at ~22:00 local 
    time and leaves eclipse southbound near 76 deg N at ~08:30.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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