Decay watch: 2000 Jan 24

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Mon Jan 24 2000 - 11:43:30 PST

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    SpaceCom now has decay warnings current for two Molniyas...
    
    #13964 = 83- 25 A = Molniya 1-57
    This has shown some chaotic behaviour over recent days as the decay has
    slipped significantly and made a mockery of my decay estimates. On the
    20th, the apogee height was falling about 250 km during every perigee
    passage but yesterday this was down to about 100 km per perigee. Since
    about 04h UTC today, the rate has dropped to ~60 km per perigee and, for
    the first time in days, the decay is very well represented by a SatEvo
    evolution. Perhaps is has shed all its solar panels ;)
    My new estimate for this decay is Jan 26 16:23 +-15h. SpaceCom has not
    renewed the estimate issued on Jan 22 for the decay to occur today, Jan
    24.
    
    #16885 = 86- 57 A = Molniya 1-67
    SpaceCom's estimate for this decay is Jan 27 23:21 +-2d while I show Jan
    27 19:47 +-1d, in good agreement. I just hope that this is better
    behaved than Molniya 1-57.
    
    More details as ever at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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