SatEvo decay list #91 (issued 2000 January 15) This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe. Information about SeeSat-L is available at http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by 2000 February 29, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date. In general, drag rates have been lower than expected, with the result that the predicted lifetimes have slipped later. This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo page at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle, and all newly launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file, satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for more than 8,000 satellites. This is available in zipped form from the same address. I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ This includes my predicted elsets for these objects. # Designation Name --- Decay (1999/2000) --- Predicted Actual? 14447 71- 15 CR Cosmos 397 deb December 26.5 26041 99- 72 B C 2367 Tsyklon-2 r December 26.85 15707 83- 44 AA Cosmos 1461 deb December 27.4 24522 94- 29 UW STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 30 25423 98- 46 L Orbcomm Pegasus deb January 1.4 21960 85-118 M C 1710 SL-12 deb January 1 24620 94- 29 ZY STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 5 7847 72- 58 T Lndst 1 Delta 1 deb January 5.6 22564 93- 15 B UFO 1 r1 January 6.22 1962 65- 82 GX OV2-1/LCS 2 deb January 16 25796 80- 89 CK Cosmos 1220 deb January 16 25663 94- 29 AEG STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 17 16885 86- 57 A Molniya 1-67 January 18? 7842 72- 58 N Lndst 1 Delta 1 deb January 19 24240 94- 29 LP STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 19 24111 94- 29 FJ STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 21 26044 99- 73 C C 2368 Molniya plat January 22 7969 75- 56 B Cosmos 744 r January 23 24368 94- 29 PV STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 23 24388 94- 29 QR STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 25 13964 83- 25 A Molniya 1-57 January 26? 20759 90- 43 L Macsat Scout G-1 deb January 26 22346 92- 93 AK C 2227 Zenit deb January 28 25220 87- 68 AX Meteor 2-16 deb January 28 24614 94- 29 ZS STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 31 25176 98- 11 B COMETS H2 r February 1 24148 94- 29 GX STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 4 24024 94- 29 BV STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 5 22822 93- 11 H Astro D M-3S2 deb February 6 22890 83- 75 G Cosmos 1484 deb February 6 24331 94- 29 NG STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 7 22702 93- 42 C GPS 2-21 Delta r2 February 8 3343 68- 66 E Explr 39 Scout deb February 9 26043 99- 73 B C 2368 Molniya-M r1 February 10 9854 77- 15 B Cosmos 895 r February 13 24054 94- 29 DB STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 17 17124 86- 19 U Spot 1 Ariane deb February 15 19304 61- 15 MD Transit 4A deb February 15 25911 99- 49 E Glblstar 33 Soyuz r February 19 24528 94- 29 WC STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 21 25769 99- 30 B Starshine February 23 24230 94- 29 LD STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 26 23887 96- 34 F Gorizont 32 aux motor February 29 25947 99- 58 E Glblstar 31 Soyuz r March 2 22876 93- 67 B Cosmos 2265 r March 14 15977 85- 74 A Molniya 1-64 March? 25965 99- 62 E Glblstar 29 Soyuz r March 25 11331 79- 32 A Cosmos 1093 April 5 20919 90- 93 B Inmarsat2-F1 Delta2 r April 22 16609 86- 17 A Mir April 26 Note 1 20966 90-104 A Cosmos 2106 May 10135 77- 61 B Cosmos 925 r June 10860 78- 45 A Cosmos 1005 July 11629 79- 99 A Cosmos 1145 August 23502 95- 8 B Cosmos 2306 r August 23941 96- 37 B TOMS r August 11268 79- 12 A Cosmos 1077 September 25123 97- 85 A Early Bird September Note 1. The estimate for Mir's decay is on the (probably unrealistic) basis that there are no further manoeuvres and that this decays naturally. Alan -- Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750 Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ ----------------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe' in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
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